Nigeria loses $12.6b worth of crude oil in nine months

Nigeria has lost nothing less than 120 million barrels of crude oil from January and September this year amidst revenue crisis.

The level of crude oil loss in production translates to $12.6 billion going by crude oil production data obtained from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

While Nigeria had proposed a budget of N20.5 trillion ($47.3 billion) in 2023 with the feasibility of relying heavily on borrowing amidst the country’s debt crisis, the $12.6 billion loss from the oil production would have provided a quarter of what is needed to finance the budget.

Infrastructure issues, pipeline leaks and oil theft have squeezed Nigerian output this year, leaving the country consistently below its OPEC+ crude targets. Nigeria’s own submission to the OPEC Secretariat put September crude output at just 938,000 b/d, just over half its quota for the month, while total liquids production was only 1.14mn b/d, according to the NUPRC.

Notwithstanding the challenges, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited is hopeful the country’s oil production will rebound to 1.8mn b/d by the end of the year and to increase further in 2023.

If Nigeria is successful in increasing its oil production, it may again broach the subject of adjusting the baseline production figure that determines its quotas within the OPEC+ group.

In 2021, the country produced 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, 1.76 million bpd in February and 1.74 million bpd in March. Production volume dropped slightly to 1.68 million bpd in April, went down to 1.65 million bpd in May and went to 1.63mbpd in June and July before dropping to 1.5 million bpd in August and September.

Compared to the same period in 2022, January production figure in terms of daily average was 1.67 million bpd, 1.52 million in February. In March, it dropped to 1.49 million bpd, went down slightly to 1.48mbpd in April before dropping sharply to 1.27 million bpd in May, 1.40 million bpd in June. It crashed to 1.31mbpd in July and worsened to 1.1 million bpd in August and September.

The total production from January to September of 2021, which included crude oil and condensate, stood at 452,051,631 barrels.

The total production from January to September of 2022, made up of crude oil, blended and unblended condensate stood at 331,825,054 barrels.

This development brought the level of loss in a space of nine months to 120,226,577 barrels.

While Brent was trading for $95.5 to barrel yesterday, the average between 2021 and 2022 stands at about $105 per barrel. The 120,226,577 barrels loss in the period under review translates to $12,623,790,585.

By Kingsley Jeremiah

The Guardian 

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Nigeria's Obasanjo clinches truce in Ethiopia

Olusegun Obasanjo has had mixed results as a mediator of intractable conflicts across Africa since he stepped down as Nigeria's president in 2007, although he has never tired of trying.

But on Wednesday the 85-year-old secured a surprise win, leading the team that announced a cessation of hostilities in Ethiopia, marking a diplomatic breakthrough in a conflict that has killed thousands, displaced millions and left many starving.

Aware that permanent progress in ending two years of fighting with roots that can be traced far further back in Ethiopia's history, the former army officer struck a cautious note.

"This moment is not the end of the peace process," the African Union mediator said. "Implementation of the peace agreement signed today is critical for its success."

Welcoming Ethiopia's government and the Tigray forces to a signing ceremony on Wednesday in South Africa's capital Pretoria, where talks have been held since Oct. 25, he said the agreement would allow the restoration of humanitarian supplies to Tigray.

Obasanjo stepped down from Nigeria's presidency in 2007 and presided over elections that marked the first handover of power from one civilian head of state to another in Nigeria since it became independent from Britain in 1960.

Many Nigerians wondered at the time of that vote whether the man who regularly spoke of his plans to retire to his chicken farm really meant to relinquish power, after his allies had at one stage sought a constitutional change to secure a third term for him.

In the end, he delivered on his promise, at least in part.

He gave up the presidency, but instead of heading off to tend his poultry he launched a new career trying to calm flare-ups across the continent, stretching from the Ivory Coast and Liberia to Congo, Angola, Burundi and Mozambique.

Some cooled down, others simmered on.

The test now is whether Ethiopia's conflict is on track for a permanent peace deal or just a temporary respite.
 

ONCE HAILED A DEMOCRATIC HERO

His own country, meanwhile, has remained prey to instability.

When president of Nigeria, an OPEC state which has struggled with violence across much of its territory, he faced insurrection in the oil-producing Niger Delta, which he was criticised for dealing with harshly.

He did all in his power to block a presidential bid by his estranged deputy, Vice President Atiku Abubakar.

That move was blocked by the Supreme Court, although Abubakar never managed to secure the top job.

In the eyes of many in Nigeria and abroad, these manoeuvres tarnished his reputation as a democrat.

Obasanjo first gained prominence during the 1967-1970 civil war over the Biafra region. As a young colonel in the federal army, he received the surrender of the secessionist Biafrans.

After a coup in 1975, Obasanjo was number two in the military government of Murtala Mohammed, and when Mohammed was assassinated the following year, he became head of state.

He presided over elections in 1979 and handed over power to an elected president -- the first Nigerian army ruler to do so.

Ater a long period out of the limelight, Obasanjo was convicted of plotting to overthrow dictator Sani Abacha, on what were widely seen as trumped-up charges, and jailed in 1995.

After Abacha's death in 1998, Obasanjo was released and was elected as civilian president in 1999.

As president, he restored Nigeria's status as a major African power after years of isolation under Abacha, sending peacekeepers into several war zones and being feted at international summits.

He brought in a team of economic reformers who introduced more budget discipline and launched a war on corruption, although critics at the time said that crackdown was aimed mainly at his opponents. Despite its oil wealth, Nigeria's economy has continued to falter.

Obasanjo, like others before and after him, failed to curb ethnic, religious and regional tensions, including the continuing instability in the Niger Delta, where oil production has been severely disrupted by kidnappings and violence.

Reuters

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Video - Nigeria ranked 103 out of 121 most hunger-affected nations

For the second year in a row, Nigeria has been ranked as having one of the worst hunger problems on earth. Continued violence in Nigeria is affecting millions of farmers leading to widespread food shortages in the country.

Nigerian Authorities Dismiss Terror Warnings by US, Other Foreign Missions

Nigerian authorities on Monday dismissed recent terror warnings by foreign missions for the capital, Abuja, as "false" and "irresponsible." Heads of Nigerian security agencies made the comments to journalists after an emergency security meeting with President Muhammadu Buhari. But security experts are urging Nigerians to take the warnings seriously.

Top government officials including the national security adviser, defense chief, head of national intelligence, and foreign affairs minister, held a joint session with journalists soon after meeting with President Muhammadu Buhari.

The meeting comes in the wake of warnings issued by various foreign missions in the West African nation, of elevated risks of terror attacks, crimes, kidnapping and communal clashes, especially for the capital, Abuja.

The national security adviser, Babagana Monguno, addressed journalists.

"We're trying as much as possible within the domestic situation to work with our foreign partners without giving the impression that Nigeria is skating on thin ice and we're about to implode. I'll want to dispel any illusion about heightened sense of insecurity. It is false, it is irresponsible...," Monguno said.

The officials reiterated that there's no cause for alarm and urged citizens to go about their normal activities without fear.

The security alert last week was first issued by the U.S. embassy in Abuja, warning Americans that government buildings, places of worship, schools, markets, and malls in Nigeria could be attacked.

Soon after, the U.K., Ireland, Canada, Germany, Denmark, Bulgaria, Finland and Australia issued similar warnings, and began evacuating their citizens from the capital.

Security analyst Chidi Omeje says he's disappointed at authorities' stance and that citizens must treat the warnings seriously.

"I'm actually confounded that the national security adviser will be the one to make such dismissal of such serious matter," Omeje said. "A country like the U.S. has a robust intelligence asset, America ought to be your partner; we must take it seriously."

Nigeria's armed forces, though, have heightened alertness around the country. Police said they have beefed up security and ordered the activation of emergency numbers to help officials promptly respond to any incident.

The growing calls for caution have spread fear among many Abuja residents, leading to the shutdown of businesses.

Borno state-based peace and security expert Abba Ali Mustafa says the United States and other nations should have talked with authorities before issuing the warnings.

"Nigeria does have a security architecture and a security system and a functioning government, so what the foreign missions should have done is reach out to Nigerian security units, liaise with them, collaborate with them and pass out this information through the national medium," Mustafa said. "I think the position of the government on this matter is on the breaching of the national integrity of the country and nothing much. It might paint a picture of hopelessness."

President Buhari last week called for calm.

Nigerian forces have been battling Boko Haram and Islamic State militants in the northeast for more than a decade. In recent years, terror groups have expanded their activities to other regions. In July, Islamic State West Africa Province, or ISWAP, claimed responsibility for a jailbreak in the capital that freed hundreds of inmates, dozens of whom remain at large.

By Timothy Obiezu

VOA

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Nigeria strengthens preventive measures following Ebola outbreak in Uganda

Nigeria has strengthened preventive measures at entry points following an outbreak of the Ebola virus in Uganda, said health authorities on Monday.

In a statement, the Nigeria Center for Disease Control (NCDC) said that it has scaled up screening of passengers returning from Uganda at airports and cautioned Nigerians against embarking on non-essential travel to Uganda for now.

The warning is to enable health authorities to determine how the Ebola outbreak will be contained, said Ifedayo Adetifa, head of the NCDC.

"Travellers to Nigeria with recent travel history to Uganda or people already in Nigeria but with recent travel history to or transit through Uganda within the past 21 days are to look out for symptoms," said Adetifa.

Travellers with symptoms including fever, muscle pain, sore throat, diarrhoea, weakness, vomiting, stomach pain, or unexplained bleeding or bruising should promptly call the health authorities for assessment and testing, said Adetifa.

"Such people should not visit health facilities by themselves to avoid further spread through the shared transport system," said Adetifa.

Xinhua 

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