Showing posts with label Finance. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Finance. Show all posts

Friday, September 22, 2023

Finance Minister of Nigeria Blames Naira Dive on Overdue Payments

Nigeria’s finance minister Adebayo Olawale Edun said up to $6.8 billion of overdue forward payments in the foreign exchange market need to be addressed before the naira stabilizes.

The currency of Africa’s largest economy extended a months-long slide and hurtled toward the 1000-per-dollar mark in street trading on Thursday, as the central bank held back from supplying dollars to a panic-stricken market.

Read more: Naira Plunges Toward 1,000 on Street Amid ‘Stampede’ for Dollars

Edun, who was named to his role last month, said resolving the overdue contracts would allow the naira to strengthen and “pave the way for additional foreign exchange flows.

“The issue we have now is that the market is not liquid enough,” Edun saif in an interview in New York. “We are committed to encouraging liquidity based on reforms that have been made at the moment, on the fiscal side and the monetary side. And together with the restoration of trust and confidence we think the FX flows will return.”

Nigeria’s central bank on Thursday postponed a rate-setting meeting scheduled for Sept 25-26. Its new governor, former Citigroup executive Olayemi Cardoso, is yet to be confirmed in his role, while the acting governor and four deputy governors have resigned, effectively leaving a policy-making vacuum at the top.

The central bank has mostly been on the sidelines this month, according to market players, with one person saying it has barely supplied dollars to the official window. That has helped accelerate the naira’s slide, pushing it down from around 900 per dollar at the start of September.

Shrinking dollar supply from the central bank is forcing buyers onto the streets for hard currency. Inflation in Africa’s biggest economy is also at the highest in more than 18 years, prompting economists to predict that the central bank would raise interest rates again at its next meeting, which for now has been deferred to an unknown future date.

“The commitment is to maintain the existing reforms and improving them. Improving the FX market further so the gap narrows,” the finance minister said. “Looking at all options for boosting supply so the one-way bet of speculators that we are seeing at the moment is reversed.”

By Henry Meyer and Ezra Fieser, Reuters

Thursday, September 21, 2023

Naira falls to a record 980 on black market

Nigeria's naira fell to a record low on the black market on Wednesday, driven mostly by speculative demand as individuals turn to the dollar as a store of value, traders said.

The unit was quoted at 980 naira to the U.S. dollar on abokiFx, a firm that publishes online black market exchange rates for the currency, compared with 965 on Tuesday.

The naira was quoted at 773.50 on the official market at 1349 GMT, swinging between a range of 738 naira and 789 naira this month.

"The current free fall of the naira is mostly driven from speculation as the black market premium has reached 23.3%," one trader said.

"The pressure also shows that liquidity in the official market is unable to support about $400 million petroleum importers need monthly to import refined fuels, given their 70% control of the market," he said.

The currency of Africa's largest economy has been weakening on the black market due to speculative activities and as excess demand is funnelled to the informal market, widening the gap with the official market, where restrictions on trading the currency was lifted in June.

One of the key challenges for newly nominated central bank governor Olayemi Cardoso will be to boost dollar liquidity to help stabilize the currency. 

By Elisha Bala-Gbogbo, Reuters


Thursday, September 7, 2023

India gives $14 billion investment pledges to Nigeria

Nigeria has secured nearly $14 billion of pledges from Indian investors and seeks an economic cooperation pact with the South Asian nation, a presidential spokesperson said on Wednesday.

India's Jindal Steel and Power (JNSP.NS) has committed to pump $3 billion into Nigeria's steel sector and Indorama Corp plans to invest an additional $8 billion to expand its petrochemical facility in the West African country, spokesperson Ajuri Ngelale said in a statement.

Skipperseil Ltd's founding Chairman Jitender Sachdeva and India's Bharti Enterprises each pledged $1.6 billion over four years to build power generation plants and $700 million in Nigeria, respectively, Ngelale said.

Separately, Nigeria approved a $1 billion partnership agreement with the Indian government to help the Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria attain 40% self-sufficiency in local manufacturing and production of defence equipment in three years, Ngelale said.

President Bola Tinubu, who will attend the G20 summit in New Delhi representing a guest country later this week, held talks with Indian investors under the Nigeria-India presidential roundtable and conference to mobilize global capital to develop infrastructure.

Tinubu is attending at the invitation of India, which currently holds the rotating presidency of the bloc.

"We are ready to give you the best returns for investment possible, there's nowhere else like our country," Tinubu said in the statement.

The government of Africa's top oil producer wants to encourage investments rather than rely on borrowing to fund job creation and build badly needed infrastructure such as railways, roads and power plants.

Tinubu has embarked on Nigeria's boldest reforms in decades, including scrapping a popular but expensive petrol subsidy and lifting foreign exchange trading curbs. He has pledged to revive an economy struggling with record debt, anaemic growth, unemployment, and double-digit inflation.


Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation, is considering applying to become the continent's second member of the G20, after South Africa, and is consulting on the risks and benefits.

By Nidhi Verma and Felix Onuah, Reuters

Tuesday, August 29, 2023

Nigeria to encourage investments rather than borrowing according to finance minister

Nigeria will seek to encourage investments rather than rely on borrowing to create jobs, Finance Minister Olawale Edun said on Monday, as the new government tries to find a solution to sluggish growth, double-digit inflation and a high debt burden.

Edun, 62, who doubles as coordinating minister for the economy, was speaking to reporters in Abuja after president Bola Tinubu held his first meeting with his new cabinet following last week's swearing-in of ministers.

"The federal government is not in a position to borrow at this time," Edun said, adding that the emphasis is on creating a stable environment to attract both local and foreign investments.

Nigeria's economy has been battered by previously low oil prices and the COVID-19 pandemic, which triggered two successive recessions in 2016 and 2020. The country has since exited that recession but growth is still fragile.

The disruptions weakened Nigeria's public finances and created large deficits, leaving the previous government reliant on both local and foreign loans to plug holes in its budgets.

Tinubu at his inauguration in May vowed to expand the economy by at least 6% a year, lift barriers to investment and create jobs, while also tackling rampant insecurity.

He has embarked on some of the boldest reforms that Nigeria has seen in years, including scrapping a popular but costly petrol subsidy and removing exchange rate restrictions. The naira has weakened to record lows.

The reforms are a gamble to try to kick-start growth but inflation has soared, worsening a cost of living crisis.

Edun, an ex-investment banker, who was special adviser to Tinubu on monetary policy before his appointment as minister, said he will focus on fixing Nigeria's public finances.

He added that the government's naira revenues have increased from crude oil proceeds following a devaluation in June.


"The federation earns dollars and if those dollars are feeding through, at let's say, 700 naira or 750 naira or so to one dollar as opposed to 460 naira where it was before. Clearly, that is repairing the finances of government," Edun said.

"So, that's the plan."

By Felix Onuah, Reuters

Thursday, August 17, 2023

President Tinubu Names Ex-Investment Banker as new Finance Minister of Nigeria

Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu named Wale Edun, who served as his senior adviser on monetary policy, as finance minister.

A former chair of Lagos-based investment bank Chapel Hill Denham Group, Edun has played a key role in the West African nation’s market-pleasing moves away from the unorthodox methods of the central bank under its suspended governor Godwin Emefiele.

Nigeria’s dollar bonds due in 2027 erased earlier losses on the news, gaining 0.4 cents to 84.5 cents on the dollar, according to indicative pricing data collected by Bloomberg.

Read More: Nigeria Eurobonds Lead Emerging-Market Losses for Second Day

Edun will be responsible for boosting government revenues, which are among the lowest in the world as a proportion of the economy. That’s essential to help narrow a budget deficit expected to reach 5% of gross domestic product this year while reducing debt service payments, which in 2022 amounted to a staggering 96% of government revenue.

His track record is promising. Edun served as commissioner of finance in Nigeria’s commercial capital Lagos between 1999 and 2007, when Tinubu was governor, and was credited with more than doubling the state’s revenues on his watch.

Since the president’s inauguration on May 29, Tinubu has taken significant steps to repair the country’s fiscal situation. He scrapped a fuel subsidy that had been a long-standing burden on government finances, costing $10 billion last year, and reformed Nigeria’s widely criticized exchange rate system that also sapped revenues.

Read More: Nigeria Forecasts Record $9.5 Billion of Taxes in Second Half

The benefits are already visible. Federal tax collection totaled 1.65 trillion naira ($2.1 billion) in June — a record for a single month — and are projected to reach 7.5 trillion naira in the second half, versus 5.5 trillion naira in the previous six months.

That will take total tax collection this year to 13 trillion naira compared to 10.1 trillion last year, with the Nigerian authorities projecting revenues will surge to 25 trillion naira in 2024, buoyed by the reforms and improved tax collection.

S&P Global Ratings on Aug. 4 raised Nigeria’s credit outlook to stable from negative on the basis of the reforms, which have also been welcomed by investors, leading to a rally in bond yields and sending stocks to a 15-year high.

Still, Africa’s most populous country — where 40% live in extreme poverty — faces significant economic challenges amid slow economic growth and the rate of inflation at an almost 18-year high.

In addition to picking his finance minister, Tinubu selected 45 other ministers, including seven women. Heineken Lokpobiri was named minister of petroleum and Adebayo Adelabu, a former deputy governor at the Central Bank of Nigeria, will be the minister of power.

Anthony Osae-Brown and Ruth Olurounbi, Bloomberg 

Related stories: Senate okays president Tinubu Cabinet nominees

President Tinubu Unveils Broad Plan to Ease Cost of Living Pain

Monday, July 31, 2023

President Tinubu orders investigation of Central Bank of Nigeria

Nigeria's President Bola Tinubu has appointed a financial watchdog to investigate the central bank, weeks after he suspended its governor, a copy of a letter from the president showed on Sunday.

Tinubu on June 9 suspended Godwin Emefiele, who was then detained by state security agents for allegedly misappropriating funds and a "criminal breach of trust." Emefiele last week appeared in court to deny illegally possessing a firearm and ammunition.

In a letter dated July 28, Tinubu appointed the chief executive of Nigeria's Financial Reporting Council as special investigator of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and other government-owned entities.

The letter said the investigator should make weekly reports to the president.

"You are to investigate the CBN and related entities using a suitably experienced, competent and capable team and work with relevant security and anti-corruption agencies to deliver on this assignment," Tinubu said.

The investigator was to "provide a comprehensive report on public wealth currently in the hands of corrupt individuals and establishments."

A presidency source confirmed the authenticity of the letter.

Tinubu's spokesperson Dele Alake did not immediately comment.

Tinubu has embarked on the country's boldest reforms in decades, including removing a popular but costly fuel subsidy and lifting restrictions on foreign exchange trading, a gamble which he hopes will boost growth.

By Felix Onuah, Reuters

Related stories: Suspended central bank governor of Nigeria denies firearm charges

Critical mistakes made by central bank of Nigeria in cash swap

Video - Supreme court suspends currency swap deadline in Nigeria

Thursday, July 27, 2023

Video - Central bank of Nigeria raises key lending rate by 25 basis points



Samson Owolabi, an associate in research and portfolio management at Zedcrest Wealth, says there were several key reasons behind the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) increasing the interest rate, including persistent inflation and record levels of money supply. Owolabi, however, added that the CBN needs to find alternative methods of addressing such issues rather than simply resorting to interest hikes.

CGTN

Friday, June 23, 2023

Fight between telcos, banks hurts financial inclusion in Nigeria

Lagos, Nigeria – Comfort Oluwaseyi has a time-tested shortcut for sending money to everyone.

For the 40-year-old fruit trader at Ikeja, in the heart of Nigeria’s commercial capital Lagos, all it takes is dialling *737# on her Itel 2160, a non-smartphone which costs 7,000 Nigerian naira ($15).

Within seconds, the operation is concluded and recipients, usually her suppliers, are sorted. The fee? Only 6.98 naira per transaction, deducted directly from her bank account.

“I cannot afford a smartphone but the phone I use still serves me well,” Oluwaseyi told Al Jazeera. “This phone helps me operate this business which in turn supports my family.”

In Nigeria, feature phones, because of their relative affordability and longer battery life, are a popular choice in low-income households – 133 million people according to a 2022 report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) – especially among older or illiterate citizens.

Furthermore, three things stand out: half of all phones shipped into Nigeria are still feature phones; only half of the country is connected to the internet according to the World Bank and, as per Lagos-based Enhancing Financial Innovation and Access (EFInA), only half of the adult population use formal banks.

For this reason, *737 is one of the most popular short codes on the Unstructured Supplementary Service Data (USSD) platform for millions in Nigeria.

USSD short codes – first introduced by the European Telecommunication Standards Institute (ETSI) in 1994, and in Nigeria for banking purposes in 2015 – help users with or without smartphones or internet connections perform multiple features.

Every day, millions of Nigerians use different short codes to pay for a range of services, from purchasing airtime to tracking sales from customers who prefer cash transfers and paying suppliers for new stock.

The ease of access also helps people like Oluwaseyi focus on business and avoid bank queues during business hours.

Even smartphone users rely on USSD services when their bank apps malfunction or banking services are poor – a routine complaint. A third of all consumer complaints filed in 2020 were against poor banking services, the most recent data from Nigeria’s Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) shows.

During a cash shortage in February that halted operations of many small businesses, USSD allowed Oluwaseyi to keep hers running, she said.
 

Dispute over bank fees

But a dispute between telecommunication companies and banks about the appropriate pricing model for USSD-powered financial transactions could cut off access to financial services for as many as 17 million people like Oluwaseyi.

Gbenga Adebayo, chairman of the Association of Licensed Telecoms Operators of Nigeria (ALTON) traced the dispute to 2019 when bank CEOs pleaded with the state-run Financial Inclusion Steering Committee (FISC) to make USSD services free of charge to accelerate financial inclusion.

Until October 2019, banks billed users directly for the service using their airtime. To ensure that even users who had no airtime could use it, banks introduced corporate billing; they calculated the number of 20-second USSD sessions (each pegged at 3.5 naira) customers used, deducted it from their bank accounts and remitted to telcos at the end of each month.

Because telcos were also billing for failed sessions and refusing to extend the 20-second session cap, banks baulked at this arrangement and asked telcos to charge their customers directly.

At a point in the dispute, MTN, Nigeria’s largest telecom company announced plans to directly bill users 4 naira for every 20-second USSD transaction.

Central bank governor Godwin Emefiele criticised the move, saying direct user billing would hurt financial inclusion. The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) then suspended the new charges.

Thus began a tussle between banks and telcos over who shoulders the cost of USSD sessions for end users. The former insist that they provide the latter, who want payment for supplying infrastructure powering the USSD technology, with customers.

Today, the banks owe a cumulative 100 billion naira ($214m) to the telcos who are threatening to cut off access to the technology.

On May 12, ALTON said it had received approval from the NCC, Nigeria’s telecommunications regulator, to disconnect the banks.

And experts fear that this could have a significant impact on many Nigerians.

“If you turn off USSD the most vulnerable Nigerians will suffer because they don’t have smartphones or if they have smartphones they are using ancient and cheap smartphones that can’t work with the latest operating system,” Adedeji Olowe, CEO of Lagos-based fintech startup Lendsqr, and a trustee of Open Banking Nigeria, a nonprofit championing financial inclusion.

Even Adebayo, the telcos’ representative, believes that too.

“The average Nigerian relies on USSD, and a lot of those who use it for financial transactions will be affected. It will affect the entire financial institution … and the entire digital ecosystem,” he told Al Jazeera.
 

Chasing financial inclusion

Some bankers have described the USSD as a clumsy technology that cannot serve as Nigeria’s answer to its financial inclusion problems, arguing that the best path to financial inclusion is making data subscriptions more affordable.

A senior executive at a leading Nigerian bank told Al Jazeera anonymously that USSD is an overrated banking channel as bank hall walk-ins still carry the bulk of the financial transactions traffic, with intelligent banking systems such as WhatsApp banking slowly becoming more popular.

On the surface, the data seems to agree.

Data from the CBN reveals that USSD accounts for only 2.3 percent by volume and 0.29 percent of the value of all electronic transactions in Nigeria in 2022. Conversely, smartphone and internet-enabled channels make up 60 percent of such transactions. Additionally, the value of USSD transactions dropped by 13.2 percent or 685.45 billion naira ($1.47bn) in the same calendar year.

But experts like Olowe argue that even if internet subscription cost is zero, the cost of smartphones and expertise to operate them present barriers for the demographic of Nigerians who need financial inclusion the most.

“Except the economy improves a lot of people won’t be able to access smartphones and these are the exact people we are trying to expand financial services to,” he said.

In a country where only 3.7 million Nigerians spend more than $10 daily as of 2021 and most of that goes to food and transport, only a few people can afford to purchase smartphones.

“Nigeria’s economy is in a fragile place currently … another big, disruptive hit to consumer spending is the last thing that the country needs,” John Ashbourne, emerging market economist at Fitch Solutions, a London-based financial intelligence company, told Al Jazeera.

But disconnection of the service is also a difficult task because of bureaucracy surrounding approvals and resistance from the telcos, industry insiders say.

“The major source of their income, which is airtime vending, comes from these channels, if they [telcos] shut it down, they are the ones that would lose,” the bank executive said.

Two of Nigeria’s leading telcos, MTN Nigeria and Airtel made 1.25 trillion naira ($2.68bn) from airtime and data in the first 6 months of 2022, according to data from the NCC.

And that development could force innovation on the part of the telcos, Emmanuel Ido, a technology lawyer at Lagos-based law firm Aluko and Oyebode, told Al Jazeera.

“One possible outcome [of the dispute] is that telcos and banks will attempt to redefine their relationship and operate independently, with telcos providing banking functions independent of traditional banks,” he said.

For end users like Oluwaseyi, the disconnect would be detrimental to her business if the telcos went ahead with their threats to disconnect USSD services.

“All I had during this [cash shortage] period was my small phone,” she told Al Jazeera. “With it … I was able to make money transfers to my suppliers.”

Al Jazeera

Thursday, June 22, 2023

After 12 years at No.1 Aliko Dangote is now 2nd Richest man in Africa

For the first time in a dozen years, Aliko Dangote has fallen from his perch as Africa’s richest person. The continent’s new number one, according to Forbes’ calculations, is Johann Rupert of South Africa, who built a fortune in luxury goods and more. Rupert overtook Dangote on Thursday, June 15 and has an estimated net worth of $11.7 billion, according to Forbes’ Real-Time Billionaires ranking at 10 a.m. ET on June 21. This marks the first time that Rupert ranks as the richest person in Africa; he's been on Forbes' list of billionaires since at least 1997. Dangote, 66, stands in second place behind Rupert, 73, among African billionaires with a fortune estimated at $10.4 billion. That’s a $3.7 billion drop from the $14.1 billion net worth Dangote had on Wednesday, June 14.

The decline of Dangote’s fortune comes in the wake of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s decision to float its currency, the naira, on June 14, abandoning the fixed exchange rate with the U.S. dollar. The naira, which had been trading around 465 per U.S. dollar, plummeted about 40% against the U.S. dollar on Friday, June 16 and fell to a low of N690 to the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, June 20.

The majority of Dangote’s fortune lies in his 85% ownership of listed firm Dangote Cement, the continent’s largest cement producer, shares of which have risen about 1% since the central bank’s decision to float the currency. The plunging naira far outweighed the slight uptick in Dangote Cement’s shares in shifting Dangote’s fortune.

The continent’s new No. 1, Rupert is chairman of Compagnie Financière Richemont, a Switzerland-listed luxury goods powerhouse that boasts brands such as Cartier, Montblanc and Van Cleef & Arpels. Richemont was founded by Rupert in 1988 when he spun off the international assets from The Rembrandt Group, his father’s conglomerate formed in the 1940s. Rupert also serves as chairman of Remgro, a South African investment holding company with a diversified portfolio in banking, healthcare and media companies. He also owns part of the Saracens English rugby team and says his biggest regret was not buying half of Gucci when he had the opportunity to do so–decades ago– for just $175 million.

Rupert’s net worth has increased by nearly $3 billion since early 2022 and more than doubled since early 2020, when Forbes estimated it at $4.6 billion.

The Nigerian Central Bank’s decision to float the naira is part of newly-elected President Bola Tinubu’s larger efforts to reportedly encourage investment into Nigeria and stop black market operators profiting from the margin between official and unofficial financial markets. Tinubu took office in May and since then has led an overhaul of the Nigerian economy that also includes abolishing the country's fuel subsidies, an incentive that has been in place since the 1970s.

According to Nimi Wariboko, a former investment banker in Nigeria and former strategic consultant at Nigeria’s Central Bank, Dangote may be able to play Tinubu’s scrapping of state fuel subsidies to his advantage with his company’s launch of a new oil refinery in Lagos last month. The plant was built to combat the country’s fuel shortages–Nigeria hasn’t been able to refine the oil extracted domestically–and was built at a reported cost of $19 billion. But Wariboko says it might also provide Dangote with an opportunity to reclaim his position as Africa's wealthiest individual.

“So he’s going to have a monopoly on [refining oil in Nigeria] and also be able to sell at a higher market price,” said Wariboko. “So this fall seems temporary.”

Representatives for Rupert and Dangote did not reply to a request for comment.

By Jemima Denham, Forbes

Related stories: Africa's richest man Aliko Dangote is building the world's largest refinery in Nigeria

Video - Aljazeera speaks with Africa's richest man Aliko Dangote

Video - Dangote Refinery in bid to end fuel imports in Nigeria


Friday, June 16, 2023

Nigerians are feeling the brunt of President Tinubu's economic shakeup

Nigerians are feeling the strain as their new president pushes through a series of unpopular policies that have earned him praise from foreign investors.

Bola Tinubu, who was sworn in on 29 May, has surprised many observers by taking a running start to his tenure of Africa’s most populous country. In little over two weeks he has banished a longstanding petrol subsidy, ejected the country’s central bank governor and ended restrictions on the rate of the naira, Nigeria’s currency.

The steps have fired up markets, sending stocks in what is also Africa’s largest economy to their highest level in 15 years. But they have also increased living costs and drawn criticism from many Nigerians who have faced years of economic mismanagement.

Joseph Essien, 47, a taxi driver in Lagos, said he had stopped working altogether because he was no longer making any profit after the rise in petrol prices. He said he used to spend about 5,000 naira (£8.40) a day on fuel, which would last him for a day of eight hours and then into the next. Last week he was spending about 15,000 naira on fuel that barely lasted him a day.

“Over the weekend I just told myself it wasn’t worth it; I’m just working to pay Bolt [the ride-hailing company] their commission and I’m left with nothing,” he said.

Tinubu, 71, who won as the ruling party candidate in February’s election, last week suspended Godwin Emefiele, the controversial central bank governor, after criticising his botched replacement of naira notes in the lead-up to the election.

Inflation hit an 18-year high and Nigeria’s debt soared to more than $150bn (£118bn) under Emefiele’s watch.

On Saturday, the national domestic security agency arrested Emefiele “for some investigative reasons”, without giving further details.

Rid of its former governor, on Wednesday the central bank floated the naira to foreign exchange buyers, signalling the end of Nigeria’s control of its official rate, which soon dropped by about 40% – the biggest fall in its history.

Countries including the UK had lobbied for that move as essential to boosting foreign investment. A Whitehall source said it meant “short-term pain for long-term stability”.

Nigerians were already reeling from chaos triggered by Tinubu in the first minutes of his presidency when he declared in his inauguration speech, off-script, that Nigeria’s costly fuel subsidy was “gone”. The move sparked panic-buying before pump prices tripled, leaving travellers stranded. Two states have announced three-day office weeks for their civil servants in response, while one has reduced school teaching to three days a week.

Bolt increased its minimum fares earlier this month after the fuel subsidy was dropped but the union for drivers using ride-hailing apps said the increase goes nowhere near covering petrol prices that have roughly tripled.

Drivers went on strike last week in protest, and this week suspended the strike while negotiating with Uber and Bolt. Nigeria’s main workers’ union has also threatened to strike.

Dosunmu Oluwaseyi, 35, the floor manager of a restaurant in the Victoria Island commercial district of Lagos, said she like many had taken to “trekking” to work, choosing shorter, cheaper bush taxi routes and making up the difference on foot.

“Some people stay at work,” she said. “They will not be able to go home every day. By the grace of God they should reduce [the price].”

Ikemesit Effiong, head of research at analyst company SBM Intelligence, said Nigeria was in “national sacrifice mode”. The devaluation of the naira combined with the dropping of the fuel subsidy was already causing inflation, he said.

He added: “The hope is that the end of the subsidy regime frees up enough resources, political trust and transparency permitting, to be channelled towards desperately needed infrastructural and social investment.”

Some have urged Tinubu, an archetypal “big man” with a reputation for lavish spending, to tighten his own belt in these times of need. They suggest shortening his convoys of blackout-windowed 4x4s, which can stretch to more than 60 cars, or getting rid of some of the seven aeroplanes in his presidential fleet.

Charlie Robertson of the emerging markets investment firm FIM Partners praised Tinubu’s policies, saying they had prevented Nigeria defaulting on its debts, which would have led to rampant inflation. “We were heading to [the situation of] Venezuela,” he said. “Millions of refugees pouring across the border desperate for jobs and stability.”

He said the fuel subsidy was “simply unaffordable”, and freeing up the naira would encourage investment in the country and could boost a stagnant private sector, potentially creating jobs. But he added: “This is the easy stuff to do. The hard stuff is to make the country ready for industrialisation and a boom.”

For now Essien, the taxi driver, sits at home with his family, desperately learning the coding language Python. “By the end of this month I hope to be able to get a grasp of an aspect of it, and look for remote jobs,” he said.

By Richard Assheton, Reuters

Related story: President Tinubu stuns wary investors with quick reforms

President Tinubu stuns wary investors with quick reforms

Nigeria's new president, in office for less than a month, is pushing to put Africa's largest economy on a reform track that investors have eyed for decades, fuelling excitement that money could flow to a nation that many had deemed uninvestible.

President Bola Tinubu's bold actions, including removing restrictions on the naira currency that allowed it to hit a record 790 to the dollar and subsidy removals that tripled petrol prices, could take stress off the battered finances of Africa's largest economy.

But investors, burned by previous reforms that ultimately proved hollow, say it will take time to build trust and listed myriad questions over the final shape of the economy.

"The reaction is one of, 'finally'," said Tunde Ajileye, a partner at Lagos-based SBM Intelligence. "If this stays, then it would mean that (Tinubu) had been able to remove the two subsidies that have crippled Nigeria fiscally and monetarily for the last decade."

Tinubu is from the same party as predecessor Muhammadu Buhari, dubbed "Baba Go-slow" for his pottering pace - taking six months to appoint cabinet members.

By contrast, Tinubu lifted fuel price caps days after taking office on May 29, suspended controversial Central Bank chief Godwin Emefiele some 10 days later and on Wednesday removed FX restrictions.

The tangle of multiple exchange rates for everything from international school fees to food imports created foreign currency shortages and hobbled investment due to issues getting money out.

"Just the fact that you have seen quite a bit of movement in a relatively short space of time has gotten a lot of people in the market excited," said Goldman Sachs economist Andrew Matheny.

Nigeria's international dollar bonds and the country's stock market have been boosted by the speedy reforms.
BACKLOG, AND BURNED BEFORE

Investors, though, remained wary, citing years of damaging currency controls; Goldman Sachs pegged the backlog of FX demand at a staggering $12 billion.

"We are still to see whether this will allow the FX backlog to clear, where the new market rate will stabilise, whether this will catalyse inflows into the country and ... that there will be no issues pulling money out of the country," said John Mumo, a partner at Blakeney, an Africa-focused equities fund management firm.

Joe Delvaux, a portfolio manager at Europe's largest asset manager Amundi, said it could take months or more to lure longer-term cash.

"Ultimately, you also have to keep in mind that the biggest provider of FX will still be the CBN," Delvaux said.

"We need to see that the system works."

Tinubu will also have to tackle the perennial corruption that has hobbled the country for decades. Nigeria is ranked 150 out of 180 in Transparency International's 2022 corruption perceptions index - and has been on a downward trend since 2016.

Investors also worry about low tax receipts and falling oil output - structural reforms that will take far longer to sort.

Some are also hoping to see a more orthodox interest rate policy. Inflation hit a near 20-year high of 22.41% in May and a weakening naira will amplify price pressures. Meanwhile interest rates, which Tinubu has said he would like to see fall, were hiked by 50 bps last month to 18.5%.

"Investors will need to see positive real rates and evidence that they will be able to repatriate their earnings before local currency debt is back in play," said Patrick Curran, senior economist at Tellimer.

Investors also worry about low tax receipts and falling oil output - structural reforms that will take far longer to sort.

Some are also hoping to see a more orthodox interest rate policy. Inflation hit a near 20-year high of 22.41% in May and a weakening naira will amplify price pressures. Meanwhile interest rates, which Tinubu has said he would like to see fall, were hiked by 50 bps last month to 18.5%.

"Investors will need to see positive real rates and evidence that they will be able to repatriate their earnings before local currency debt is back in play," said Patrick Curran, senior economist at Tellimer.

By Rachel Savage, Reuters

Thursday, May 4, 2023

Video - Nigeria approves operations for over 170 digital lending platforms



The move comes as more Nigerians grow more comfortable and knowledgeable in accessing the digital economy. Mobile lending apps have become an easy source of credit in Nigeria, with the country ranked among the fastest-growing markets in Africa.

CGTN

Thursday, April 20, 2023

Video - International airlines struggle to repatriate $800 million from Nigeria



The International Air Transport Association says the amount of trapped funds belonging to foreign airlines operating in Nigeria to repatriate is close to 800 million U.S. dollars. Nigeria is facing a severe shortage of foreign currency, and the issue makes it difficult for airlines to convert local currency to repatriate revenues earned from ticket sales.

CGTN

Monday, April 3, 2023

Video - Cash crunch spurs digital payment system in Nigeria



The Central Bank of Nigeria's demonetization exercise has been criticized for many things – but it did spur an aggressive surge in the use of digital payment channels in the first two months of the year. Data from the Nigeria Interbank Settlement System indicates that in the first two months of 2023, the volume of transactions being made on mobile phones rose by 70 percent. 

CGTN 

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Monday, March 27, 2023

Banknotes Dispensed in Nigeria to Reduce Three-Month Cash Crunch

Nigeria’s central bank increased the supply of banknotes to lenders to end shortages that have hampered individual and business transactions and crippled the cash-based economy since January.

Most lenders including United Bank for Africa Plc, Zenith Bank Plc and FBN Holdings Plc called in staff on Saturday and Sunday to help customers access cash in banks or via automated teller machines.

The disbursement, in compliance with a central bank directive, is being monitored “personally” by Governor Godwin Emefiele, according to spokesman Isa Abdulmumin. Residents should have unfettered access to cash within the weekly withdrawal limits and terms, he said by phone from the nation’s capital, Abuja.

Africa’s most populous nation was hit by a cash shortage late last year after the central bank began replacing old 200-, 500- and 1,000-naira notes with new ones in a bid to mop up excess liquidity, promote electronic-based payments and rein in inflation. Some state governors challenged the program in court and the Supreme Court extended a Feb. 10 deadline set to phase out old notes until year-end.

Although the court ordered the central bank to redistribute old notes amounting to 2.2 trillion naira, or 70% of cash in circulation, to ease shortage, residents still struggled to access banknotes as of last week as few banks and ATMs had supplies. It prompted the Nigerian Labour Congress, the umbrella workers union, to call for protests at central bank offices from March 29.

The improved distribution is expected to balance the supply and demand for cash in the economy and halt further impediments to personal and business transactions. About 90% of transactions in Nigeria’s informal economy are conducted using cash.

Citizens withdrew cash from automated teller machines in the business district in Nigeria’s commercial hub of Lagos on Monday without the usual long queues. “After what I went through in the past to withdraw my own money, what I see here today is like magic; it’s a big relief,” said Adebisi Erimipe, who withdrew 10,000 naira ($21.69) in old 500 naira notes within few minutes at Unity Bank Plc’s ATM located on the Island in Lagos.

The central bank will keep weekly withdrawal limits at 500,000 naira for individuals and 5 million naira for companies to discourage residents from holding excess money, Abdulmumin said. A processing fee of 3% for individuals and 5% for companies is charged for those seeking to withdraw cash above the limits. 

By Emele Onu, Bloomberg

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Wednesday, March 22, 2023

Rates rise in Nigeria due to price and exchange rate pressures

Nigeria's central bank raised its benchmark lending rate by 50 basis points to 18% (NGCBIR=ECI) on Tuesday as monetary authorities continued to tighten policy to rein in inflation which has squeezed consumer purchasing power.

The high cost of living was among major concerns for voters during last month's disputed presidential election that was won by ruling party's Bola Tinubu, who has promised to revive the economy and end widespread insecurity.

The central bank's latest rate hike came after last week's inflation data showed price rises quickened in February despite the recent cashless policy meant to reduce the amount of currency in circulation. Inflation also rose in January.

Central Bank of Nigeria governor Godwin Emefiele said members of the Monetary Policy Committee were unanimous in raising rates, citing price and exchange rate pressures and expectations of the removal of a petrol subsidy that cost $10 billion last year.

"These, in view of members, provided a compelling argument for an upward adjustment of policy rates, albeit less aggressively," Emefiele said.

Razia Khan, head of research, Africa and Middle East at Standard Chartered Bank, said inflation risks remained on the upside but the pace of tightening was more moderate in order to reduce negative real interest rates.

Investors are looking at how quickly the petrol subsidy will be removed as Tinubu prepares to get into office on May 29.

"In terms of reform, there are now firm expectations that we should see fuel subsidy reforms commencing imminently. Less clear is the time frame for any FX policy adjustment," Khan said.

"FX adjustment would likely have to precede any meaningful portfolio inflows, but current global volatility and its impact on the oil price could see fuel subsidy reforms being given prominence near-term, with FX reforms to follow, only later."

Emefiele said Nigeria's banks remained sound and would not be affected by the impact of the collapse of two U.S. lenders and problems at Credit Suisse. 

By Chijioke Ohuocha and Camillus Eboh, Reuters

Friday, March 17, 2023

Critical mistakes made by central bank of Nigeria in cash swap

Nigeria has successfully introduced new banknotes on about 10 occasions since independence in 1960. So why has the latest attempt been so controversial and traumatic? And what measures need to be taken to avoid a future debacle?

Nigeria’s central bank announced the introduction of new banknotes last November, with the changeover to new notes scheduled for mid-December. The rollout of the policy disintegrated into chaos, amid mounting anger among ordinary Nigerians.

The rollout of the currency change was disastrous. The fallout included:

. Severe shortages of the new banknotes.

. Precipitous declines in business transactions (especially in the informal sector).


. Long queues at bank premises and overcrowded banking halls


. Attacks on bank staff and destruction of bank property, including ATMs that failed to dispense cash.

The policy also led to lawsuits by some state governors against the Central Bank of Nigeria and the Federal Government.

I have identified five factors that marred the redesign policy, most of which could have been avoided by the Central Bank of Nigeria.
 

Litany of errors

Cost-benefit: An egregious error committed by the central bank was its violation of the principle of cost-benefit analysis. This is a simple rule in economics that implores policy makers to undertake an initiative only when the benefits exceed the costs. One should ask: What were the benefits of introducing the policy? What were the potential costs at the time of implementation?

The central bank justified the redesign policy as follows: to rein in counterfeiting, promote a cashless economy by limiting the amount of the new banknotes that can be withdrawn, reduce the large quantity of dirty notes circulating in the economy, discourage hoarding, curb crimes like kidnapping and terrorism, and head off illicit financial transactions.

It also saw the policy as a way of addressing the huge amount of currency outside the formal financial sector; 85% of banknotes circulate outside the banking system, largely because of hoarding and illicit financial transactions.

And the cost? If indeed the central bank considered the cost, it obviously underestimated it. How would anyone ignore the large-scale disruptions in the economy and loss of productivity that the policy caused, not to speak of the stress and anxiety inflicted on Nigerians?

Communication: Of all the pitfalls that doomed the currency redesign policy, at least as conceived originally, the lack of effective communication about the overarching goals and modus operandi of the exercise was the most devastating.

Nigeria’s central bank threw a basic element of strategic planning and communication to the winds when it failed woefully to communicate and educate the public about expectations, prior to launching the policy. According to strategic planners, a major policy initiative that is not well communicated, from the top of the strategy planning pyramid to the bottom, is bound to fail.

The central bank should have sought the buy-in of major stakeholders, especially the National Economic Council and the National Assembly. The central bank would have had a better chance of avoiding the ferocious push-back it got.

The central bank finally began rolling out a communication plan by late December 2022. But this was too little too late. By then Nigerians had already characterised the policy as decidedly punitive. The narrative that had gained ground was that the change was designed to curtail the ability of politicians to buy votes during the 2023 elections.

This inevitably raised the question of why millions of Nigerians should suffer because of politicians?

The central bank’s mishandling of communication was also manifested in the fact that it failed to issue policy guidelines to commercial banks and the public days after the Supreme Court nullified the bank’s earlier deadline. This has exacerbated the confusion associated with the policy, as merchants and businesses continue to reject the old notes, despite the court’s rulings.

Inappropriate timeframe: The timeframe for implementation was unrealistic and impracticable. By setting a very short timeframe for phasing out the old notes, the Central Bank of Nigeria appeared to have adopted textbook assumptions about how the Nigerian banking system works.

Anyone who has been to a typical commercial bank in Nigeria would know it would have been impossible for the banks to undertake the monumental task of collecting old notes and dispensing the new ones within the one-and-a-half month window originally allowed by the central bank. Overcrowding, chaos, excruciatingly slow service and unnecessary bureaucratic red tape are quite common during normal banking hours. It is not uncommon to observe people with “connection” circumvent queues and obtain preferential access to bank staff. Although Nigerian banks pride themselves as being digitised, a lot of paper-pushing still goes on within the banking system.

The central bank should have considered this fact and allowed for a longer timeframe for implementation.

There was also no persuasive rationale for the rushed implementation of the policy. Neither was the central bank able to explain why the old and new notes could not coexist, a measure the Supreme Court has now mandated the bank to implement.

Conflicting goals and lack of prioritisation: Policy targeting is a major precondition for success. The focus on one unambiguous objective in past redesign policies enabled the central bank to conduct a seamless and less dramatic exercise.

The current redesign policy had too many goals, and it was unclear which one was the target goal.

Identifying target goals enables policy makers to select appropriate instruments for achieving those goals. But when there are too many goals, the danger is that an instrument designed for one goal may undermine another goal.

For instance, the goal of reining in money laundering and illicit financial transactions meant that the Central Bank of Nigeria needed to deliberately restrict access to the new banknotes. But this inflicted unintended hardships on innocent Nigerians who simply wanted to access their hard-earned money.

The central bank should have focused on one major goal. If the goal was to phase out old notes, as the bank is statutorily mandated to do, then the old and new notes could have circulated alongside each other until the old notes were phased out.

A casual announcement that new notes would be circulating from a given date would have been all that was needed. People would not have panicked and rushed to the banks to withdraw money.

Economic headwinds: It is very difficult to implement a major policy initiative that negatively affects people during a period of macroeconomic instability. The central bank policy came at a bad time. Nigeria’s economy is in a shambles, with a 22% inflation rate, 33% unemployment rate – 43% among young Nigerians – and a growth rate of 3%.

These economic challenges have been compounded by a 17.5% interest rate, steep declines in the value of the Naira, and widespread poverty.

Nigerians’ tolerance for economic shocks was already at its limit when the redesign policy was launched. The policy and the confusion that accompanied it tipped them over the edge.
 

The challenge of credibility

The central bank needs to reestablish its credibility as the “people’s bank,” to reverse a self-inflicted image of an organisation that’s partisan.

The bank has a fiduciary responsibility of catering to the interests of its main “shareholder,” the Nigerian people. But the perception is that the bank lacks independence. To effectively discharge its statutory duties, the Central Bank of Nigeria should initiate a process of re-asserting its independence and regaining the people’s trust and confidence.

By Stephen Onyeiwu, Professor of Economics & Business, Allegheny College

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Video - Supreme court suspends currency swap deadline in Nigeria

Tuesday, March 14, 2023

Central Bank of Nigeria says old naira notes still legal tender

Nigeria’s central bank will allow old bank notes to continue as legal tender until the end of the year to comply with a court order earlier this month, according to a statement late on Monday, raising hopes this would ease acute cash shortages in the economy.

On March 3, the Supreme Court ordered the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to extend the use of old 1,000 ($2.17), 500, and 200 naira notes until December 31. The initial withdrawal of the notes from circulation became an election issue after causing widespread hardship and anger.

CBN said it was complying with the law and that the old notes would circulate with new ones of equivalent value. Earlier, on Monday evening, a statement from the Nigerian presidency said President Muhammadu Buhari did not urge the CBN not to obey the court order.

“The CBN has no reason not to comply with court orders on the excuse of waiting for directives from the President,” it said.

In a country where most people rely on cash for everything from buying food from markets to taxi fares, the shortages of naira notes have riled citizens, a few of whom have attacked banks and burned cash-dispensing machines.

By Camillus Eboh, Reuters

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Video - Nigerian banks face a shortage of new naira notes

 

 

Friday, February 24, 2023

16 States in Nigeria sue central bank over withdrawal of old banknotes



16 states in Nigeria asked the Supreme Court to force the central bank to extend by six months the use of old banknotes, whose withdrawal from circulation has caused cash shortages ahead of weekend elections. The shortage of naira notes has angered citizens with some of them attacking banks and burning cash-dispensing machines.

CGTN 

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Election proceed in Nigeria despite cash shortage crisis

Nigeria’s election commission said Thursday it now has received much of the cash it needs to carry out this weekend’s elections, dismissing concerns that the vote would be postponed because of the country’s banknote crisis.

Meanwhile, though, Nigerians continued to line up at banks across Africa’s most populous nation, unable to withdraw their money. The shortages fueled fears that voters could have trouble getting to their polling stations on Saturday.

Authorities have in the past delayed Nigeria’s last two presidential elections, but the Independent National Electoral Commission said Thursday that election materials and staffers were being deployed to more than 175,000 voting units across Nigeria.

“I want to assure Nigerians that we are adequately prepared for this election,“ INEC chairman Mahmood Yakubu said at a news conference in the capital, Abuja.

Still, he noted that 6.2 million eligible voters had not picked up their voting cards in time for Saturday’s vote.

Hussaini Abdu with YIAGA Africa, a nonprofit group promoting electoral reforms in Nigeria, feared people could have difficulties getting to polling stations on Saturday or lose interest altogether.

“The growing discontent among citizens may lead to voter apathy in the form of protest, which will eventually lead to low voter turnouts,” Abdu said.

Nigerian voters are to choose a new president on Saturday from a field of 18 candidates following the second and final term of incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari.

Three front-runners have emerged, including the ruling party’s Bola Tinubu and the main opposition’s Atiku Abubakar. Peter Obi, a third-party hopeful who has been favored in most polls, has broken the usual cycle of two-candidate races.

In a tweet Thursday, Buhari urged election officials and security agencies “to be firm and courageous, and to abide by the laws and constitutional provisions in conducting the elections.”

Authorities announced in November that they were replacing Nigeria’s currency, the naira, with new, redesigned notes for the first time in nearly two decades. But with the change coming just before the election, everyone from vendors to government officials have struggled to have enough money on hand in a country still heavily dependent on its cash economy.

On Thursday, the election commission also sought to reassure Nigerians that the country’s security challenges were being addressed as well.

Observers have expressed concerns about the safety of voters and election workers, particularly in the north where thousands have died in the last year because of violence linked to Islamic extremists and banditry.

Violence directed at polling stations in the southeast where separatists are active also has created unease about the vote.

A senate candidate for the Labour Party was burned to death by gunmen, police said Thursday, the latest in a spiral of violence that analysts fear could affect voter turnout.

Chinedu Asadu, AP

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