The WZB Berlin Social Science Center has drawn on over two decades of data from across Nigeria to examine links between drought patterns, conflict incidents, and the religious composition of local communities.
Sociology professor Ruud Koopmans, who co-authored the study, said the data challenged the perception that climate change was the main driver of violence. Instead, he pointed to religious divisions as the decisive factor.
Religion influences violent conflict in Sahel
"Where these Muslim pastoralists meet farmers, who are in majority Christian, that is where we have the largest number of violent confrontations," says Koopmans, who is based at Berlin's Humboldt University.
He added: "Where there is this religious divide, the conflict is further exacerbated by droughts."
The Fulani are a primarily Muslim-cattle owning people that have historically lived across what is now Nigeria, Niger, Mali, and other West African nations. Many in Nigeria have adopted the Hausa language, and used to be far more nomadic than today. Depletion of cattle herds has led some Fulani to become sedentary.
In the past, Fulani herders and farming communities have suffered killings and property destruction during clashes.
Researchers used a survey in Kaduna State, north-western Nigeria, to establish that Christian respondents were more likely to attribute conflict over grazing lands to religious causes, and harbor greater distrust of Muslim Fulani. Meanwhile, Muslim respondents were more likely to cite droughts and competition for resources as the cause for conflict.
The researchers say similar dynamics could apply beyond Nigeria, including in parts of the Sahel where climate stress and social divisions overlap.
In their report, the researchers call for policies to address water and land management, but also for early warning systems and community-based conflict mediation in religiously mixed regions. Such measures,they suggest, could help to prevent environmental pressures from turning into violent conflict.
"Where these Muslim pastoralists meet farmers, who are in majority Christian, that is where we have the largest number of violent confrontations," says Koopmans, who is based at Berlin's Humboldt University.
He added: "Where there is this religious divide, the conflict is further exacerbated by droughts."
The Fulani are a primarily Muslim-cattle owning people that have historically lived across what is now Nigeria, Niger, Mali, and other West African nations. Many in Nigeria have adopted the Hausa language, and used to be far more nomadic than today. Depletion of cattle herds has led some Fulani to become sedentary.
In the past, Fulani herders and farming communities have suffered killings and property destruction during clashes.
Researchers used a survey in Kaduna State, north-western Nigeria, to establish that Christian respondents were more likely to attribute conflict over grazing lands to religious causes, and harbor greater distrust of Muslim Fulani. Meanwhile, Muslim respondents were more likely to cite droughts and competition for resources as the cause for conflict.
The researchers say similar dynamics could apply beyond Nigeria, including in parts of the Sahel where climate stress and social divisions overlap.
In their report, the researchers call for policies to address water and land management, but also for early warning systems and community-based conflict mediation in religiously mixed regions. Such measures,they suggest, could help to prevent environmental pressures from turning into violent conflict.
Religious tensions in northern Nigeria
According to Koopmans, religious tensions have intensified since the late 1990s. He cited the introduction of Sharia law in parts of northern Nigeria, resistance in regions such as Nigeria's Middle Belt, and the rise of the jihadist group Boko Haram as factors that had deepened mistrust between communities.
These developments, he argued, had also revived older historical fears, particularly among Christian communities.
Clashes were more likely in the Middle Belt,where Muslim herders and predominantly Christian farming communities interacted, he said. Conflict is less likely in northern regions where pastoralists and sedentary communities are mostly Muslim.
According to the WZB study, shared religious identity can help limit escalation, with conflicting parties able to appeal to religious authorities respected by both sides, making dispute resolution more likely and reducing the risk of violence.
"When both nomads and farmers are Muslim, they are also more likely to respect common religious norms concerning property and the use of violence. There is a clear spiritual disbenefit associated with harming people who share the same faith," the study said.
According to Koopmans, religious tensions have intensified since the late 1990s. He cited the introduction of Sharia law in parts of northern Nigeria, resistance in regions such as Nigeria's Middle Belt, and the rise of the jihadist group Boko Haram as factors that had deepened mistrust between communities.
These developments, he argued, had also revived older historical fears, particularly among Christian communities.
Clashes were more likely in the Middle Belt,where Muslim herders and predominantly Christian farming communities interacted, he said. Conflict is less likely in northern regions where pastoralists and sedentary communities are mostly Muslim.
According to the WZB study, shared religious identity can help limit escalation, with conflicting parties able to appeal to religious authorities respected by both sides, making dispute resolution more likely and reducing the risk of violence.
"When both nomads and farmers are Muslim, they are also more likely to respect common religious norms concerning property and the use of violence. There is a clear spiritual disbenefit associated with harming people who share the same faith," the study said.
Fulani militancy driving religious violence
The United States Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) has identified armed Fulani groups as being among the most prominent non-state actors behind religious violence in Nigeria. It says an "estimated 30,000 Fulani militants" likely operate across Nigeria.
"While these militants do not share a centralized leadership, some collaborate on attacks," said the USCIRF, which added that violence linked to Fulani militants had caused more deaths among religious communities over the past year than attacks by insurgent groups or criminal gangs.
While many attacks have focused on Christian communities, particularly in the Middle Belt and increasingly in southern Nigeria, Muslim communities have also faced raids, killings and kidnappings.
The violence has contributed to mass displacement, with at least 1.3 million people in the Middle Belt forced into overcrowded and insecure camps. Kidnappings for ransom have also become a major tactic, with religious institutions often targeted.
The United States Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) has identified armed Fulani groups as being among the most prominent non-state actors behind religious violence in Nigeria. It says an "estimated 30,000 Fulani militants" likely operate across Nigeria.
"While these militants do not share a centralized leadership, some collaborate on attacks," said the USCIRF, which added that violence linked to Fulani militants had caused more deaths among religious communities over the past year than attacks by insurgent groups or criminal gangs.
While many attacks have focused on Christian communities, particularly in the Middle Belt and increasingly in southern Nigeria, Muslim communities have also faced raids, killings and kidnappings.
The violence has contributed to mass displacement, with at least 1.3 million people in the Middle Belt forced into overcrowded and insecure camps. Kidnappings for ransom have also become a major tactic, with religious institutions often targeted.
Calls for stronger security coordination in Nigeria
The legal expert and founder of the Abuja-based House of Justice, Gloria Mabeiam Ballason, said the scale of the threat was difficult to independently verify due to a lack of verifiable information presented by Nigerian authorities.
She said this risked undermining public confidence and warned that conflicting messaging could fuel uncertainty and fear.
"These threats are real. It would help for the government to have a clear program and strategy around ensuring that the next set of recruits into terrorism are stopped," she told DW.
Wilson Inalegwu, a retired assistant inspector general of police, said that immediate efforts must combine force with better planning and coordination. He warned that attacks often spread across neighboring Nigerian states because authorities failed to anticipate patterns.
"Those in Kwara were not prepared. They thought it was a Niger problem. You go to Kwara State, those in Oyo State thought it was a Kwara problem. Now it is in Oyo. So, we must have a kind of very robust patrols along these areas," he told DW.
The legal expert and founder of the Abuja-based House of Justice, Gloria Mabeiam Ballason, said the scale of the threat was difficult to independently verify due to a lack of verifiable information presented by Nigerian authorities.
She said this risked undermining public confidence and warned that conflicting messaging could fuel uncertainty and fear.
"These threats are real. It would help for the government to have a clear program and strategy around ensuring that the next set of recruits into terrorism are stopped," she told DW.
Wilson Inalegwu, a retired assistant inspector general of police, said that immediate efforts must combine force with better planning and coordination. He warned that attacks often spread across neighboring Nigerian states because authorities failed to anticipate patterns.
"Those in Kwara were not prepared. They thought it was a Niger problem. You go to Kwara State, those in Oyo State thought it was a Kwara problem. Now it is in Oyo. So, we must have a kind of very robust patrols along these areas," he told DW.
