The leading contenders in Nigeria’s presidential election face a defining question: should the fuel subsidy be restored to ease the burden of rising energy costs?
President Bola Tinubu, who is seeking a second term in January, has repeatedly defended his decision to scrap a years-long subsidy program in 2023 to avoid wasteful spending and invest in infrastructure development. But his government’s introduction of a short-term petrol price discount this month to counter rising costs driven by the Iran war has reignited the debate as to whether a subsidy would make a more lasting return.
Tinubu’s main rivals say they plan to restore some form of consumer support if elected and have accused the president of panicking in the face of pressure to account for his decision, with polls opening in less than 100 days. SBM Intelligence, a Lagos-based advisory firm, found in a survey published in September that more than two-thirds of voters want the government to reinstate a fuel subsidy of some kind. Insecurity, which has worsened around the country, is also set to figure as a major point of contention.
The revived subsidy debate is shaping just about every conversation concerning the coming vote in Africa’s biggest democracy. Tinubu and his 17 challengers are hitting the campaign trail to sway voters whose collective purchasing power has weakened sharply in the last three years, in large part due to the five-fold rise in fuel prices in that period which has driven inflation and spawned a cost-of-living crisis. Its resurgence reflects Nigeria’s history as the continent’s top oil producer and exporter that has consistently failed to convert its energy riches into broad-based prosperity.
For years, the vast majority of the crude oil produced in the country was exported because none of the government’s domestic refineries were fully functional. Imported refined products were then subsidized by payments from the state-oil company NNPC, enabling a multibillion-dollar largesse that grew into an increasingly opaque and corrupt scheme, according to government fact-finders and international observers. It was also costly: The program’s $10 billion in 2022 exceeded the combined budget for healthcare and education.
Tinubu has largely not faced widespread protests or strong political opposition since ending the subsidy. He has told Nigerians that his policy approach is shifting from offering “emergency treatment” — ostensibly to fix the faulty foundations of the economy he inherited — to enabling shared prosperity.
But in Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, he faces familiar challengers who are eager to make the coming election a referendum on the impact of energy costs. “Bola made life expensive. I will work to make life affordable again,” Atiku said in a campaign video last week. Obi, the other heavyweight in the race, pledged to judge his leadership by metrics that would show Nigerians “eating better, living better, and escaping poverty.”
The sharp rise in energy costs that followed Tinubu’s subsidy removal led several businesses to shutter or reconsider operations in Nigeria. But while many questioned the absence of safety net measures to cushion the impact of Tinubu’s so-called shock therapy, the International Monetary Fund praised the subsidy removal, as did several economists. An IMF official last week cautioned Nigeria to avoid the temptation of reinstating a subsidy for political reasons.
The Dangote refinery in Lagos, which started supplying fuel in Nigeria two years ago, provides about 70% of Nigeria’s domestic fuel needs. But the country still imports refined fuels. Both Dangote — which buys more than a third of its crude from international suppliers — and fuel importers are vulnerable to global oil price shocks.
The potential for further escalation in the Iran war, underscored by recent Iran-backed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, raises the question of how long Nigeria is prepared to extend the price cap that is initially planned to be in place for 30-days. “I think it’s highly likely that this gets extended, at least through the elections into Q1,” said Ikemesit Effiong, a partner at SBM.
BMI, a subsidiary of Fitch Group, expects the price cap to amount to up to 0.4% of Nigeria’s gross domestic product by the second quarter of next year.
Nigeria’s subsidy debates are divisive because the program — once seen by many Nigerians as the only benefit they got from the state — has swallowed historically mammoth sums and is inextricably associated with corruption and state capture by a cabal of favored oil traders.
Many analysts say Nigeria’s fuel subsidy burdened public finances and encouraged adverse behaviors like fuel smuggling. Together with changes that allowed the naira currency to float freely by market forces, Tinubu’s subsidy removal helped to improve Nigeria’s fiscal stability and strengthen reserves.
But trialling a short-term fuel price cap points to a government reckoning with the pain it has inflicted. “The removal of the fuel subsidy has been economically necessary, but socially painful,” Jervin Nadioo, an analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, told me. He believes Tinubu is “well positioned to secure re-election” but growing public frustration over living costs suggests that an improved economic picture has not translated into sufficient relief for households.
Stop-gaps and sweeteners may sway some voters towards Tinubu in January. But it is more likely that the difficulties of the last three years have already hardened views about the candidates.
The battle for political advantage ahead of elections should not obscure a reasonable expectation that governments can intervene to soften the pain of citizens, said Vahyala Kwaga, country head for Nigeria at policy research group BudgIT.
“Anything that can alleviate the hardship that the masses suffered from the day it was announced that the subsidy is gone is certainly welcome,” Kwaga said. Ultimately, though, his concern is with transparency and accountability: “Who is going to be held responsible if the subsidy doesn’t work?”
By Alexander Onukwue, SEMAFOR
Monday, October 19, 2026
Thursday, October 15, 2026
Video - Nigeria’s CNG transition faces long queues and refueling challenges
Nigeria is promoting compressed natural gas as a cheaper alternative to petrol amid rising fuel prices. However, long queues and limited refueling stations in Abuja are leaving motorists frustrated and reducing drivers’ earnings.
Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, reveals how much you must have before he prioritizes you for his refinery’s IPO
Aliko Dangote, President of the Dangote Group and majority shareholder of the Dangote Refinery, recently said investors with N50,000 ($37.59) and below will receive more attention concerning the Dangote Refinery’s initial public offering (IPO).
He made the revelation at the nationwide IPO roadshow in Port Harcourt, Rivers State, as the event ended.
Addressing investors, financial market experts, business leaders, and other stakeholders, Africa’s richest man reiterated a message he has insisted on since he decided to take his refinery public, and that is the fact that the IPO was initiated for the average and below-average African investor.
“We will prioritise people with 50,000 and below,” Dangote stated, according to a Wednesday statement by the Dangote Group.
During the event, Dangote also revealed that investors from across the globe had already committed significant capital to the refinery.
However, the public offering is intended to enable Nigerian citizens to secure direct ownership in the enterprise.
“African investors have invested in this refinery. Now it is time for Nigerians to invest in themselves and participate in a project that is creating value, jobs, and opportunities for generations to come,” Dangote stated.
The Nigerian billionaire urged potential investors to take a long-term view of the IPO, noting that it could offer opportunities to build wealth and diversify their investment portfolios, as reported by the Punch.
It was recently reported that the refinery has returned to profitability, raking in $4.725 billion in net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2026.
Revenue more than doubled to $22.5 billion as the refinery processed up to 700,000 barrels of crude oil per day.
The company reported $650.8 million in cash, compared with $1.7 billion in debt a year earlier.
This improved financial performance coincides with the refinery's efforts to secure capital amounting to billions of dollars through the IPO, which is projected to be the largest equity offering in African history.
Dangote IPO
The Dangote Refinery IPO is intended to attract investors across Africa, starting from its home base, Nigeria.
The Refinery IPO aims to broaden ownership of the $20 billion facility, which has a processing capacity of 700,000 barrels per day, by bringing in up to 10 million retail investors in Nigeria and across Africa.
The IPO was launched on September 14 and was initially scheduled to close on October 13, before being recently extended to October 27.
The initial public offering currently consists of 4.1 billion new ordinary shares priced at N525 per share, with a minimum purchase requirement of 10 shares valued at N5,250.
The issuance of 4.1 billion new ordinary shares at N525 each is expected to raise roughly N2.15 trillion upon full subscription.
The Dangote Refinery IPO is intended to attract investors across Africa, starting from its home base, Nigeria.
The Refinery IPO aims to broaden ownership of the $20 billion facility, which has a processing capacity of 700,000 barrels per day, by bringing in up to 10 million retail investors in Nigeria and across Africa.
The IPO was launched on September 14 and was initially scheduled to close on October 13, before being recently extended to October 27.
The initial public offering currently consists of 4.1 billion new ordinary shares priced at N525 per share, with a minimum purchase requirement of 10 shares valued at N5,250.
The issuance of 4.1 billion new ordinary shares at N525 each is expected to raise roughly N2.15 trillion upon full subscription.
By Chinedu Okafor, Business Insider Africa
The Gulf’s wealthiest nation has a land dispute in Nigeria over an 8,000-square-metre embassy plot
Qatar, the Gulf’s wealthiest nation, is seeking clarity over an 8,000-square-metre parcel of land allocated for its embassy in Abuja after a court letter challenged its ownership, creating a hurdle for the country’s development plans in Nigeria’s capital.
The dispute came to light on Tuesday, October 13, when the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, met Qatar’s Ambassador to Nigeria, Yousef Ahmed Al-Hail, in Abuja.
According to The Voice of Nigeria (VON), the ambassador asked the FCT Administration to clarify the matter and help Qatar proceed with its planned embassy development.
Wike assured the Qatari government that the administration would intervene, saying: “Be assured that nothing will happen. We want to assure you that whatever the issue is, we will take action on it.”
The meeting also opened discussions on a broader partnership between Abuja and Doha, with the FCT Administration looking to draw lessons from Qatar’s approach to urban development, transportation and infrastructure.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Qatar’s GDP per capita, adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP), is projected to reach $112,310 in 2026, making it the Gulf’s wealthiest country by this measure.
Abuja looks to Qatar for urban planning expertise
Wike said the FCT Administration was prepared to send officials to Qatar to study how the country has developed new cities and built modern infrastructure, with the aim of adapting relevant approaches to Abuja.
“We want to partner with you. We will come and see how we can visit Qatar and see what they have done in terms of developing new cities. Planning and the concepts are very key,” he said.
VON reported that the proposed cooperation could cover city planning, transport networks, infrastructure and investment. Qatar’s ambassador proposed a formal partnership between Abuja and Doha to support the exchange of expertise and said he was ready to review a draft cooperation agreement.
Nigeria and Qatar have maintained diplomatic relations for decades, with their ties formalised through the opening of embassies in Abuja and Doha in 2013.
According to the Qatari Embassy in Abuja, relations between the two countries began roughly three decades ago and have expanded through high-level visits and diplomatic engagement.
Both governments have continued exploring ways to deepen commercial ties, including private-sector investment and cooperation through the Nigeria-Qatar Joint Business Council. These efforts reflect their shared interest in translating longstanding diplomatic relations into wider economic partnerships.
Wike said the FCT Administration was prepared to send officials to Qatar to study how the country has developed new cities and built modern infrastructure, with the aim of adapting relevant approaches to Abuja.
“We want to partner with you. We will come and see how we can visit Qatar and see what they have done in terms of developing new cities. Planning and the concepts are very key,” he said.
VON reported that the proposed cooperation could cover city planning, transport networks, infrastructure and investment. Qatar’s ambassador proposed a formal partnership between Abuja and Doha to support the exchange of expertise and said he was ready to review a draft cooperation agreement.
Nigeria and Qatar have maintained diplomatic relations for decades, with their ties formalised through the opening of embassies in Abuja and Doha in 2013.
According to the Qatari Embassy in Abuja, relations between the two countries began roughly three decades ago and have expanded through high-level visits and diplomatic engagement.
Both governments have continued exploring ways to deepen commercial ties, including private-sector investment and cooperation through the Nigeria-Qatar Joint Business Council. These efforts reflect their shared interest in translating longstanding diplomatic relations into wider economic partnerships.
Wednesday, October 14, 2026
Video - Trade Wars, Fighting Corruption and Rethinking Globalization
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala spent her early career fighting corruption, at great personal cost. Today, she leads the World Trade Organization at a time of unprecedented disruption. On this episode of Leaders, she speaks with Francine Lacqua about her work in Nigeria and how it led to her mother's abduction, how the US trade war and geopolitics are putting tremendous strain on global trade and why it’s time to re-imagine globalization.
What drives the world’s most influential minds? In Leaders with Francine Lacqua, Bloomberg’s award-winning anchor sits down with the decision-makers shaping our future to explore the personal stories behind their public personas. Discover what inspires them, how they navigate power and the lessons they offer on defining success. Insightful, cinematic and elegantly crafted, Leaders goes beyond the headlines to reveal the human side of leadership.
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