Nigeria caps jet fuel prices to avert airline disruptions

Nigeria's government is capping jet fuel prices and allowing airlines to buy supplies on credit, according to a government document seen by Reuters, as it tries to avert flight ​disruptions caused by soaring fuel costs.

The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) ​said in the document that aviation fuel should sell for 1,760 ⁠naira to 1,988 naira ($1.29 to $1.46) per litre in Lagos and 1,809 naira to ​2,037 naira in Abuja, based on benchmarks from April 17 to April 23.

It warned ​that prices could still rise due to market volatility linked to the U.S.–Iran conflict and higher supplier costs.

The NMDPRA and aviation ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The decision follows ​emergency talks after airlines warned that jet fuel prices had jumped by more ​than 270%, forcing fare increases and raising the risk of capacity cuts.

President Bola Tinubu last week approved ‌30% relief ⁠on airlines' debts to aviation agencies and ordered fuel marketers, airlines and regulators to agree on a "fair" fuel price within 72 hours to prevent a sector-wide shutdown.

The talks also agreed to grant airlines a 30-day credit window to pay for fuel and ​tasked the aviation ​ministry with mediating debt ⁠disputes between operators and oil marketers, according to the document.

A technical committee convened by the NMDPRA recommended that fuel marketers sell ​directly to airlines within the indicated price range to cut ​costs and ⁠improve supply-chain transparency, the document said.

The committee also urged regulators to engage Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals over recently increased premiums applied to international benchmarks used to price jet ⁠fuel.

Other recommendations ​include validating airside fuel distributors with adequate infrastructure - ​potentially reducing the number of authorised suppliers at airports - and considering jet fuel for Nigeria's naira-for-crude initiative to ​limit airlines' foreign exchange exposure.

By Isaac Anyaogu, Reuters

Jet fuel crisis: a boon for Nigeria's Dangote, but not for local airlines

Nigeria's giant Dangote refinery is benefiting from record margins for producing jet fuel that it is mostly selling abroad, while the domestic airlines it also supplies have threatened ​to stop flying because of the surge in fuel prices.

The refinery, the largest on the continent, was built to turn Africa's biggest oil producing ‌country into a net exporter of refined products, end Nigeria's reliance on fuel imports, and shield its economy from global energy shocks.

It became fully operational at the start of this year and is producing at its maximum capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.

That has improved local fuel availability but domestic fuel prices are still among the highest in Africa as Nigeria's market is fully deregulated, meaning fuel prices are ​not subsidised by the government as they are in most African countries.

The issue is further complicated by the state oil company's long-standing debt repayment agreements that ​mean Dangote has to import most of its crude oil, making it easier to balance its books if it sells abroad.

CLASH WITH ⁠THE NEEDS OF THE AVIATION INDUSTRY

Industry body the Airline Operators of Nigeria said prices, taking logistics and storage costs into account, have climbed to 3,300 naira ($2.44) per litre, ​nearly triple the level in February before the start of the Iran war.

Nigeria's energy regulator said Dangote was selling jet fuel at 1,879 naira ($1.39) per litre, little changed from imported fuel ​prices of about 1,900 naira ($1.41) per litre delivered to Lagos earlier this month.

The Middle Eastern conflict has led to unprecedented energy disruption and the risk of jet fuel shortages is pressing. Airlines around the world have hiked prices, added fuel surcharges and grounded planes.

Nigerian airlines last week threatened to halt all flights, prompting the government on Thursday to approve measures including some relief on debts owed by local airlines ​and ordering talks to try to agree lower prices.

DANGOTE'S MARGINS COULD BE EVEN BETTER?

Dangote, meanwhile, as a new, highly efficient refinery, has been able to take advantage of record margins ​for producing jet fuel from crude.

Its profits could be even higher if it could rely on Nigerian crude and avoid almost all freight costs.

State oil firm, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited’s ‌joint‑venture crude, ⁠however, is tied to oil-backed loans and pre‑export deals.

That means much of Nigeria's roughly 1.5 million barrels per day of production goes to paying debts to international oil majors, banks and traders. The NNPC does not disclose its obligations, but analysts estimate they amount to about 400,000 bpd.

Dangote Group Vice President Davekumar Edwin said Dangote imported most of its crude from the U.S., as well as some from other African producers and Brazil. He did not give precise figures.

He said the bulk of the 24 million litres of jet ​fuel it produces daily was shipped to Europe, ​although he also said the refinery ⁠largely supplied the needs of Nigerian airlines, which the aviation industry estimates at about 2.1 million litres per day.


EUROPEAN BUYERS ARE WILLING TO PAY UP

As European buyers are willing to pay a premium ahead of the peak demand summer travel season, European imports from ​Nigeria have averaged 78,000 to 96,000 barrels per day in April so far, data from Kpler and LSEG showed, the highest ​on record.

Alan Gelder, senior ⁠vice president for refining, chemicals and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie, said European refiners had earned about $15 per barrel.

He estimated Dangote's margins at more than double that as a result of access to Nigerian crude and the plant's scale and sophistication. Edwin did not disclose figures, but the profits from producing jet fuel hit a record on international markets in March.

Dangote, as ⁠a private refinery, ​prices its products in response to global markets, Gelder said, and that building a big refinery "does not ​automatically mean fuel prices fall".

Dangote plans to list shares in the coming months and is expanding the complex to 1.4 million bpd capacity, which could make it the world's largest refinery by the end of the ​decade.

By Macdonald Dzirutwe, Reuters

Dangote plans world’s largest refinery expansion, targeting 95,000 jobs

 

Africa’s largest industrial project is set to scale further, with Aliko Dangote announcing plans to expand the Dangote Refinery to a production capacity of 1.4 million barrels per day, a move expected to create up to 95,000 skilled jobs at peak construction.

Dangote made the disclosure in Lagos during his induction as an Honorary Fellow of the Nigerian Academy of Engineering, framing the expansion as a significant step in Nigeria’s industrialisation drive.

“This award is particularly meaningful because it recognises what we are doing in the industry,” he said, adding that the project would employ “about 95,000 skilled workers on site” at its peak.

Once completed, the upgraded facility is projected to surpass India’s Jamnagar Refinery to become the world’s largest refinery by capacity. The development is expected to strengthen Nigeria’s domestic refining capability, reduce reliance on imported fuel, and ease pressure on foreign exchange reserves.

Dangote said the expansion would rely heavily on local expertise, creating opportunities for engineers, technicians, and artisans, while also driving technology transfer and supporting the broader oil and gas value chain.

“The scale of this expansion reflects our confidence in Nigerian capacity and our belief that Africa can build world-class infrastructure,” he said.

Call for deeper Dangote investments

Industry observers note that the refinery has already been positioned as a cornerstone of Nigeria’s efforts to become a net exporter of refined petroleum products, with potential spillover effects across manufacturing and logistics.

In a separate development, Abdullahi Sule called on the Dangote Group to deepen its investments in Nasarawa State, citing its untapped mineral resources.

Speaking at the Nasarawa Trade Fair, Governor Sule, represented by a state official, said existing collaboration with the conglomerate could be expanded to support industrial growth.

He also referenced the group’s long-term investment ambitions, including a $100 billion target under its Vision 2030 strategy, suggesting such commitments could bolster small businesses and stimulate broader economic activity.

While the refinery expansion signals growing investor confidence in Nigeria’s industrial base, analysts say its long-term impact will depend on regulatory stability, infrastructure support, and global oil market dynamics.

By Segun Adeyemi, Business Insider Africa

Related story: Africa’s richest man sees his net worth surge by $3.21 billion

Nigeria exports 55.39 million barrels as Dangote refinery faces crude supply shortfall

Nigeria exported 55.39 million barrels of crude oil in the first two months of 2026, highlighting a widening imbalance between rising export flows and persistent domestic supply shortages affecting its largest refinery.

Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria showed that exports totalled 31.31 million barrels in January and 24.08 million barrels in February.

Average daily production stood at 1.46 million barrels in January and 1.31 million barrels in February, while export levels averaged 1.01 million barrels per day and 0.86 million barrels per day, respectively.

Overall production for the two months reached 81.94 million barrels, leaving 26.55 million barrels for local refining. The figures underscore ongoing tensions between export commitments and domestic industrial demand, particularly from the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

The $20bn Lekki-based refinery has repeatedly reported insufficient crude supply from domestic producers, forcing it to supplement feedstock with imports from international markets despite Nigeria’s status as Africa’s largest oil producer.

The imbalance persists under the naira-for-crude arrangement, which is designed to prioritise local refining but continues to face implementation challenges. Industry stakeholders say a significant portion of crude output is still exported rather than directed to domestic refineries.

Between October 2025 and mid-March 2026, the Dangote refinery reportedly faced a crude shortfall of about 79.53 million barrels. Internal data indicate that the facility requires approximately 19.77 million barrels per month to operate at full capacity, but received far lower volumes during the period.

Monthly deliveries included 4.55 million barrels in October, 6.45 million in November, 4.30 million in December, 5.65 million in January, and 4.66 million in February, with 3.6 million barrels supplied in the first half of March. This translates to a supply performance of about 26.9 per cent against the estimated requirements of 108.74 million barrels.

“The refinery continues to operate below optimal capacity due to inadequate domestic crude supply, despite clear provisions under the Petroleum Industry Act prioritising local demand,” a senior refinery source told Punch.

Fuel pricing has also reflected the strain on supply chains. Petrol prices rose above N1,300 per litre (approximately $0.87 using an estimated exchange rate of 1,500 naira per US dollar), before easing to around N1,250 per litre (about $0.83).

The Dangote refinery has attributed the price volatility to insufficient domestic crude allocations. In a statement, it said it had been receiving “about five cargoes a month from NNPC, far below the 13 cargoes required,” adding that shipments were priced at international market rates despite being paid partly in naira.

It further stated that reliance on imported crude had increased costs because local upstream producers were not meeting their supply obligations under national regulations.


NNPC response highlights supply constraints and pricing pressures

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, however, said it was working to bridge supply gaps through international sourcing.

A senior official noted, “We are leveraging our global crude trading network to source third-party crude at competitive international market prices,” adding that the company remained committed to supporting domestic refining.

The official also pointed to historical crude sales commitments as a factor affecting short-term availability, though insisted that alternative sourcing strategies were being pursued.

Separately, Aliko Dangote confirmed that the refinery received 10 cargoes in March, up from an average of 5 cargoes per month since late 2024. However, this still fell short of operational requirements.

Industry groups, including the Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria, have called for increased allocation to domestic refineries, arguing that a stable feedstock supply is essential for profitability and energy security.

As Nigeria balances export earnings with domestic industrialisation goals, the widening gap between crude production, exports, and local refining demand continues to draw scrutiny from stakeholders across the energy value chain.

By Segun Adeyemi, Business Insider Africa

Nigerian airlines threaten to halt flights over soaring jet fuel prices

Nigerian airlines will suspend all flight ​operations from April 20, they warned, unless crippling jet fuel prices, which ‌they accused the country's fuel marketers of artificially inflating, are reduced.

The Airline Operators of Nigeria, an industry body grouping around a dozen mainly domestic carriers, wrote to the Major Energies Marketers Association ​of Nigeria on April 14, complaining that jet fuel prices had risen ​by about 270% since late February.

Global oil and fuel prices have surged ⁠since the onset of the Iran war, as the conflict severely hinders shipping through ​the critical Strait of Hormuz.

But in the letter seen by Reuters, AON called the jet ​fuel increase in Africa's most populous nation "astronomical and artificial," saying it far outpaced global crude oil prices.

"Currently, airline revenues are insufficient to cover the cost of fuel alone," it said.
MEMAN did not ​immediately respond to a request for comment.

Soaring jet fuel prices have upended the global aviation industry, ​forcing airlines to raise fares, curb growth plans and rethink forecasts.

AON said that raising ticket prices ‌to ⁠reflect the fuel costs airlines are facing in Nigeria could lead to low passenger numbers, while a shutdown of airline operations would have broader repercussions, hurting banks, costing jobs and worsening insecurity.

Jet fuel typically accounts for 30% to over 40% of African airlines' ​operating costs, compared ​with a global average ⁠of 20% to 25%, according to the African Airlines Association, making them particularly vulnerable to price surges.

Nigeria’s aviation sector consumed about ​2.1 million litres of jet fuel per day last month, ​data from ⁠the country's petroleum products regulator showed.

However, the giant Dangote Petroleum Refinery - Nigeria's sole domestic jet fuel producer - made no deliveries to the domestic market in March, the data showed.

At the ⁠same ​time, data from tanker-tracking firm Kpler showed Nigeria's exports ​of clean petroleum products - gasoline, diesel, kerosene and jet fuel - more than doubling month-on-month in March.
Dangote did ​not immediately respond to a request for comment.

By Isaac Anyaogu, Reuters

Nigeria becomes net petrol exporter for first time in decades as Dangote refinery scales up

Nigeria has become a net exporter of petrol for the first time in decades, marking a turning point for a country long defined by its dependence on imported fuel despite being Africa’s largest oil producer.

The shift, recorded in March 2026, was driven by rising output from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which is rapidly transforming the country’s downstream oil market.

Data from energy intelligence firm Kpler shows Nigeria exported about 44,000 barrels per day (bpd) of petrol during the month, slightly exceeding imports and leaving a net surplus of roughly 3,000 bpd.

It is a symbolic and economic milestone. For years, Nigeria relied heavily on fuel imports due to underperforming state refineries, a system that drained foreign exchange and exposed the economy to global supply shocks.

That dynamic is now changing.

Crude supply to the 650,000 bpd Dangote refinery rose to about 565,000 bpd in March, one of its highest levels since operations began in late 2023. At the same time, petrol imports fell sharply to around 41,000 bpd, the lowest level ever recorded.

The figures point to a rapid replacement of imports with domestic refining.

Beyond reducing import dependence, the refinery is also expanding Nigeria’s reach into new markets. In March, it shipped a 317,000-barrel cargo of petrol to Mozambique, its first export to East Africa, with another cargo expected in April.

The move signals a broader shift in African fuel trade flows. East African countries, traditionally reliant on suppliers from the Middle East, are increasingly diversifying sources amid persistent global supply disruptions and shipping risks.

For Nigeria, the implications are significant.

Exporting petrol could help boost foreign exchange earnings while reducing demand for dollars previously used for imports, a key factor behind pressure on the naira in recent years. It also strengthens energy security by anchoring supply within the country.

At a global level, Nigeria’s entry into the export market could intensify competition, particularly in Europe where petrol supply is already ample.

The development reflects a deeper structural change: Nigeria is beginning to move from exporting crude and importing refined products to processing more of its oil domestically, a long-standing policy goal that has repeatedly failed in the past.

The Dangote refinery sits at the centre of that transition.

Its scale and rising utilisation are already reshaping expectations for the sector, with analysts pointing to potential gains in industrial activity, trade balance, and fiscal stability if output remains strong.

At the same time, the refinery’s owner, Aliko Dangote, is pursuing plans to list the business across multiple African stock exchanges in what could become the continent’s first pan-African initial public offering.

The proposed listing aims to attract investors across different countries and deepen cross-border capital flows, though analysts say execution will depend on regulatory alignment and currency stability.

For now, the export milestone offers the clearest signal yet that Nigeria’s long-troubled downstream oil sector may be entering a new phase, one defined less by scarcity and imports, and more by domestic capacity and regional influence.

By Ayodeji Adegboyega, Business Insider Africa

Related story: Dangote refinery hikes exports to ease Africa supply crunch

Ex-Nigerian oil minister denies taking bribes

A former Nigerian oil minister accused of being treated to luxury home stays and lavish spending sprees in the UK in exchange for granting government contracts has denied asking for or taking bribes.

Diezani Alison-Madueke, 65, told Southwark Crown Court on Monday that she had "tried to push back on corruption" in a country plagued by it since the days it was a British colony.

Several Nigerian businessmen are alleged to have bankrolled huge spending sprees, including more than £2m at luxury store Harrods and £4.6m on refurbishing homes in London and Buckinghamshire.

But the ex-minister said that the cost of services laid on for her while on official duties was later repaid.

"I can state categorically that at no point did I ask for, take or receive a bribe of any sort from these persons and did not abuse my office," Alison-Madueke told the court.

"I always sought to act impartially".

She said money spent on her behalf was reimbursed by the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), adding that a service company was set up in London to handle the logistics because the financial structure of the NNPC was in a mess.

"They paid for all my hotels, chauffeurs... to allow me to perform the job that I did," she said.

The prosecution's case is based on allegations that Alison-Madueke was given access to a "grand" home in Buckinghamshire, a £2.8 million home in Marylebone, and multi-million pound homes overlooking Regent's Park, and allegedly benefited from renovations valued at £4.6m.

The court heard how she and her extended family spent five days over Christmas 2011 at a house in Gerrards Cross, Buckinghamshire, because her ex-husband required hospital treatment and could not fly back to Nigeria.

She said she was not involved in the arrangements for the stay.

A second visit, she said, was over two weeks when she and 10 to 12 officials wrote a book praising the Nigerian president's championing of women.

"I took it upon myself to put together that book to showcase what he did for women," she said.

Alison-Madueke said another property overlooking Regent's Park was used for "discreet" official meetings, while she said another property she is accused of using was "completely gutted" for renovations and unusable when she saw it.

The court had previously heard how Alison-Madueke and her mother stayed in two apartments in St John's Wood with the rent being covered by Nigerian businessman Kolawole Aluko. He is one of several Nigerian businessman involved in the case who are not on trial.

Alison-Madueke said she had suggested this was much cheaper than continuing to hire £2,000-a-night suites in expensive hotels like the Savoy and Dorchester.

In court on Monday, the former minister said she was not aware at the time that one of her chauffeurs had delivered £100,000 in cash to her, adding that the money had had nothing to do with her.

The court heard how Alison-Madueke had risen quickly through the ranks at Shell, becoming the first senior female executive in its Nigerian operation.

This was despite her not wanting to work for the multinational company because of its treatment of her father, she said, who had once also been a senior employee.

"I found the job uncomfortable to put in mildly, " she said, explaining that her father, who was a tribal leader, had once unsuccessfully taken legal action against Shell "for apartheid practice in West Africa."

She told the court how when she worked at Shell, the company was having big problems dealing with oil spills in the Niger delta area where her family was from. She didn't believe the company had done enough "to make good on the devastation that they had caused".

Asked about concerns with her own security, she said Nigeria was a "very patriarchal society" so to have a "woman sitting at the helm was a major no no."

She added that she was "under dire threats of kidnap" and that members of her family had been seized.

The court also heard how in 2015, Alison-Madueke was elected the first female head of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec), a group of oil-exporting countries which meets to decide how much crude oil to sell on the world market.

Alison-Madueke denies five counts of accepting bribes and a charge of conspiracy to commit bribery.

Also on trial, oil industry executive Olatimbo Ayinde, 54, denies one count of bribery and another count of bribing a foreign public official.

Meanwhile, Alison-Madueke's brother, former archbishop Doye Agama, 69, denies conspiracy to commit bribery.

The trial continues.

BBC

Related story: Ex-Nigeria oil minister in bribery trial spent £2m at Harrods, court hears

Nigeria sweats in heatwave as Iran war drives up costs to stay cool

High temperatures are nothing new for Nigeria, Africa's most populous country which is just above the equator. However, according to the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), the situation is worsening. It warned in a 2025 report that from 2016 to 2025, nine out of ten years were "among the 12 warmest on record."

Analysts attribute the rising temperatures in Nigeria's commercial capital, Lagos, to climate change, its coastal location, dense population, limited greenery, and heavy traffic.

The constant use of generators worsens the problem because the petrol-guzzling machines emit heat and greenhouse gases.

Public transport, meanwhile, is shambolic, with most commercial vehicles dilapidated and lacking functioning air conditioning.

Temperatures reached 35 degrees Celsius in Lagos at the end of March, according to NiMet.

They reached 38 degrees Celsius in the capital Abuja, while Sokoto in the northwest hit 44 degrees Celsius, with NiMet describing the conditions as "unhealthy."

Rising fuel prices

Nigeria's unique economic situation as Africa's fourth-largest economy, combined with a dilapidated power grid that is much less stable than those of some of its poorer neighbors, has led to widespread use of private generators, at least among those who can afford them.

That number may be dwindling as fuel prices soar due to the Iran war. Gasoline prices have nearly doubled in the capital, from around 850 naira ($0.62) per liter to over 1,300 – a record high in a country where it was sold for about 195 naira at the start of 2023.

Health warnings

The heatwave could also worsen Nigeria's malaria problem. According to the World Health Organization, climate change – through increased rainfall, temperatures, and humidity – can sometimes speed up malaria transmission by helping mosquitoes to breed faster.

Nigeria recorded about a quarter of the world's malaria cases and 30% of global deaths in 2024, according to the WHO.

The upcoming rainy season provides some relief as storms cool down temperatures.

However, it will also present its own challenges, like flooding.

CGTN

Nigeria Debuts New Crude Grade with Landmark Export to the Netherlands

Nigeria’s state oil company NNPC has exported its first cargo of a new light crude grade, Cawthorne, to the Netherlands, the company said on Wednesday.

NNPC is aiming to boost production and diversify its export streams as Nigeria works to lift output after years of underinvestment, oil theft and operational disruptions.

About 950,000 barrels were shipped from the Cawthorne floating storage and offloading vessel (FSO), located off Bonny in Rivers State, which supports output from oil mining lease 18, NNPC said.

The launch follows recent additions such as Nembe and Utapate crudes under what NNPC described as a broader strategy to expand Nigeria’s portfolio of exportable oil blends.

Nigeria produced about 1.4 million barrels per day in March, OPEC data shows, well below capacity.

NNPC Chief Executive Bashir Bayo Ojulari said the development supported government targets to raise crude output to three million bpd by 2030.

Nigeria depends on oil exports for most of its foreign exchange earnings.

Reuters

Dangote refinery hikes exports to ease Africa supply crunch

Nigeria's Dangote refinery has increased gasoline and urea exports to African countries hit by supply disruptions caused by the Iran war. Owner Aliko Dangote says the refinery has shipped around 17 cargoes of gasoline to other African nations.

Reuters

Nigeria's fuel prices surge as the US-Israeli war on Iran disrupts global oil markets

Despite being one of Africa's largest oil producers, Nigeria is experiencing soaring fuel prices driven by global energy volatility linked to the US and Israel's war against Iran. The Dangote refinery produces 75 million litres of petrol daily—exceeding domestic demand—but disrupted crude supplies and surging global prices have pushed local petrol costs up 50 per cent in the first month of the conflict. Commercial operators and families are struggling as transport and food prices climb, forcing many to cut back on essential purchases and meals. The refinery is working to diversify crude sources and develop its own oil production to reduce dependence on volatile international markets.

Al Jazeera

Nigeria fuel prices surge 65% amid global oil shock

Fuel prices in Nigeria have surged by 65% amid a global oil shock, even as the country's foreign reserves continue to decline. Analysts attribute the pressure to low oil production, theft, and underperforming refineries. With oil accounting for more than 80% of foreign exchange earnings, the shortfall is driving higher living costs and currency instability.

CGTN Africa

Giant oil refinery in Nigeria fails to prevent record gasoline prices

Fuel prices in oil-producing Nigeria have reached record-high levels, industry figures show, as maximum output from the giant Dangote Petroleum Refinery has failed to shield ​the country from the energy market impact of war in the Middle East.

The 650,000 barrels-per-day refinery, Africa's largest, became fully operational early this year. It was designed to ‌transform Nigeria into a major exporter of refined products after decades of inadequate refinery capacity. In the past, that repeatedly led to fuel shortages but government subsidies kept pump prices low.

President Bola Tinubu removed this buffer when he took office in 2023, promising reforms that earned plaudits from international investors.

Now Nigerians face the shock of a 65% price spike - the largest among major African economies as the impact of the new refinery has been blunted by the need to import ​large volumes of expensive crude from abroad, even though Nigeria is Africa's biggest oil producer.

INTERNATIONAL OIL MAJORS TAKE THEIR SHARE

The constraint stems from Nigeria’s financing model: state oil firm the ​Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited’s joint‑venture crude is tied to oil-backed loans and pre‑export deals.

That means much of Nigeria's roughly 1.5 million barrels-per-day of production goes ⁠to paying debts to international oil majors, banks and traders. The NNPC does not disclose its obligations, but analysts estimate they amount to about 400,000 bpd.

David Bird, managing director at Dangote, told local ​TV that the company can only source about five crude cargoes a month locally, far short of the 13–15 required. It has to import the rest at prices dictated by the impact of the Middle ​Eastern war. For Nigeria the size of a cargo is typically around a million barrels.

The difficulty is compounded because Nigeria does not have a strategic fuel reserve and the government has yet to begin action to set one up.

"A strategic reserve would have shielded Nigeria somewhat from the inflationary effects of price spikes and keep refineries supplied during prolonged disruptions," Mikolaj Judson, an analyst at advisory company Control Risks, said.

IRAN WAR CAUSES UNPRECEDENTED SUPPLY DISRUPTION

The energy supply disruptions ​that have followed U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran, which began at the end of February, are unprecedented. As a result of the conflict, shipment through the Strait of Hormuz, a route for about one-fifth of ​global energy supplies, is effectively closed for commercial shipping.

International oil prices have leapt to well above $100 a barrel, roughly 50% higher than before the war began, boosting the profits of many energy majors, while governments and ordinary ‌consumers grapple with ⁠the risk of a surge in inflation.

In Nigeria, pump prices have risen by 65%, more than elsewhere in the region, where government price controls have limited the rise.

Between March 2 and March 21, fuel prices rose by about 10–17% in Ghana, were unchanged in Kenya due to price controls, and increased by around 1% in South Africa, according to industry and regulatory pricing data.

INFLATION IS REIGNITED AFTER IT HAD BEGUN TO COOL

In Nigeria, inflation had begun to ease after reaching a record high last year, but since the start of the war, the cost of transport and some food items has doubled.

“We are already feeling it ​in Nigeria,” said Salau Sodiq, a 25‑year‑old frozen-food-seller ​in Lagos. "The prices of fish and chicken have ⁠doubled, customers are complaining, sales are falling, and it’s becoming harder for us to buy the volumes we need."

Ride‑hailing drivers in Lagos last week staged protests.

Nigeria's unreliable grid means many others are also exposed to expensive refined products as businesses and households rely on gasoline and diesel to power generators.

INCREASED VOLUMES DOMESTICALLY ​AND ALSO ABROAD

Dangote has raised gasoline supplies to Nigeria’s domestic market this month, even as it met growing demand from across Africa.

It sets its fuel ​prices in line with international ⁠fuel and crude benchmarks, factoring in freight and insurance costs.

The result was it raised its wholesale price by about 61% between early and late March, meaning customers are paying around 1,400 naira ($1.02) per litre in Lagos and Abuja, the highest Nigerians have ever paid.

After meeting Tinubu last week, Aliko Dangote, president of Dangote Group, said the conflict in the Middle East would worsen economic hardship across Africa unless it was urgently resolved.

Businesses and ⁠labour unions have ​called on the government for emergency relief, including tax incentives for refiners, more naira‑based crude supply and temporary cushioning measures, ​while accelerating longer‑term energy reforms.

In southern Oyo State, the governor approved a 10,000‑naira transportation allowance for state government workers, to run for three months from April, to help offset rising fuel prices.

But Wale Edun, Nigeria's finance minister, said the government will not ​interfere with an "orderly market pricing system", preferring instead to focus on ways of helping people to adapt.
($1 = 1,377.8300 naira)

By Isaac Anyaogu, Reuters

Nigeria eases FX rules, lets oil firms retain full export proceeds

Nigeria's central bank has removed a requirement that forced international oil companies to temporarily retain part of their export earnings, allowing them ​to repatriate all proceeds in a move aimed at improving liquidity and ‌confidence in the foreign exchange market.

In a circular dated March 25, the central bank said it had scrapped earlier "cash pooling" requirements that allowed authorised dealer banks to transfer only half of ​oil export proceeds immediately, with the balance held for up to 90 ​days.

Under the new directive, oil companies may repatriate all export earnings ⁠through authorised banks, subject to documentation and monthly reporting, with immediate effect.

The move ​signals further liberalisation of Nigeria’s foreign exchange regime for oil exporters, a key source ​of dollar inflows, though it is unlikely to produce an immediate jump in supply.

The central bank said the move was part of ongoing reforms to “further liberalise and deepen the market in ​line with current market realities,” as it works to stabilise the naira currency ​and attract investment.

For international oil companies, the reform restores greater control over cash-flow management, allowing firms ‌to ⁠decide when and how to deploy export earnings without mandatory holding periods.

Industry executives say freer access to dollar revenues improves treasury efficiency and marginally lowers financial risk in Nigeria’s upstream sector, where confidence over capital mobility remains key.

The change reverses a restriction ​imposed in February 2024 ​amid acute dollar ⁠shortages that pushed the naira to record lows. At that time, the central bank capped immediate transfers of oil export proceeds ​at 50%, with the remainder held locally for 90 days ​in a ⁠bid to shore up dollar liquidity.

That earlier measure formed part of a broader package of reforms following years of foreign exchange strain linked to low oil prices and ⁠the ​COVID-19 shock.

Since then, the central bank has also raised ​open-market rates to attract investors and scrapped caps on foreign-exchange spreads in the interbank market as it ​unwinds controls introduced during periods of stress.

By Isaac Anyaogu, Reuters

Dangote Refinery Boosts Africa Fuel Supply Amid Global Disruptions

Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery is emerging as a key supplier across Africa, ramping up fuel exports just as global energy flows face disruption due to the Iran war. With the plant now running at full capacity, shipments have begun reaching multiple countries, including South Africa, Ivory Coast, Cameroon and Ghana. The move is helping ease regional fuel shortages and highlights Africa’s growing role in stabilising energy supply chains.

WION

Nigeria records one of highest global fuel price increases as Iran conflict disrupts oil markets

Nigeria has emerged as one of the hardest-hit countries in the global fuel price rally triggered by the ongoing tensions involving the United States, Iran, and Israel, despite being one of Africa’s largest oil producers and home to the continent’s biggest refinery.

Data from Investorsight shows that gasoline prices in Nigeria have risen by 39.5%, placing it second globally just behind Vietnam, highlighting deep structural challenges in the country’s downstream oil sector.

Oil remains the world’s most critical energy resource, powering roughly 70% of global demand and underpinning industries from transportation to agriculture.

As geopolitical tensions disrupt supply chains and threaten key shipping routes, the resulting price shocks are being felt unevenly across countries, with import-dependent economies and those with fragile refining systems bearing the brunt.

Nigeria fuel prices surge amid global oil shock

Fuel prices in Nigeria have risen sharply since the outbreak of the Iran war, highlighting the country’s exposure to global oil shocks.

At the refinery level, Dangote Refinery increased ex-depot prices from about ₦774 to ₦874 per litre in early March, a roughly 13% jump with retail prices climbing to ₦1,075–₦1,175 per litre in some areas.

Meanwhile, NNPC Limited recorded steeper increases, with pump prices rising from ₦900–₦1,000 to ₦1,200–₦1,400 per litre across major cities reflecting a 30–40% surge.

Overall, Nigeria’s average petrol price has increased by nearly 40%, reflecting how quickly global disruptions are transmitted into the domestic market.

With fuel pricing now deregulated, both refinery and retail prices respond rapidly to shifts in crude oil prices, exchange rates, and supply risks, leaving even an oil-producing nation highly vulnerable to external shocks.

The sharp increase in Nigeria’s fuel prices reflects a paradox that has long defined its energy sector. Despite being a major crude oil exporter, the country has historically relied on imported refined petroleum products due to underperforming state-owned refineries.

Even with the operational ramp-up of the Dangote Refinery (Africa’s largest) Nigeria is still navigating a transitional phase. The refinery has yet to fully stabilize domestic supply or eliminate dependence on imports, leaving local prices exposed to global market shocks.

Additionally, the full deregulation of Nigeria’s downstream sector has linked domestic fuel prices more directly to international crude benchmarks.

This means that any geopolitical disruption such as tensions in the Middle East affecting oil transit routes like the Strait of Hormuz quickly translates into higher pump prices locally.

Currency pressures have also amplified the impact. The depreciation of the naira increases the cost of importing refined products and crude feedstock, further pushing up retail fuel prices.

In contrast, some developed economies on the list have strategic reserves, diversified energy mixes, or subsidy buffers that help cushion price volatility.

Nigeria’s high ranking, therefore, highlights not just global pressures, but persistent domestic vulnerabilities in refining, logistics, and foreign exchange stability.

By Solomon Ekanem, Business Insider Africa

Nigeria loses $21 million daily as oil output falls below OPEC target

Nigeria is losing an estimated $21 million daily as crude oil production remains below its 1.5 million barrels-per-day target set by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Averaging 1.42–1.45 million barrels per day, the shortfall is straining the national budget and foreign exchange reserves despite crude prices above $100 per barrel.

CGTN Africa

Africa’s largest refinery drives $3.74 billion crude imports into Nigeria

Nigeria's oil trade dynamics shifted dramatically in 2025, with crude imports related to the Dangote Refinery reaching $3.74 billion, an unexpected event for a country famed for its crude exports.

This data was contained in the latest Balance of Payments report of the West African country’s central bank, which cited the refinery's crude oil acquisitions as a significant factor influencing the nation's current account.

Per the report, Nigeria's current account surplus was $14.04 billion in 2025.

While this represents a drop from the $19.03 billion posted in 2024, it remains a substantial improvement compared to the $6.42 billion surplus recorded in 2023.

The reduction from the previous year was attributed in part to changing oil trading patterns, particularly the importation of crude for domestic processing, linked to the world’s largest single-train refinery.

Export numbers reflect this transition, with crude oil shipments declining to $31.54 billion in 2025 from $36.85 billion in 2024, a 14 percent decrease.

Despite this dip, Nigeria's goods account improved, with a surplus of $14.51 billion, up from $13.17 billion in 2024.

This surge was primarily driven by activities related to the Dangote refinery, as well as improved performance in other export areas, as seen in the Punch.

The export of refined petroleum products was a major highlight, bringing in $5.85 billion for the year. Increased gas exports also contributed to the improving trade position.

At the same time, the refinery's operations seem to be changing Nigeria's import profile. With more locally refined fuel available, the country's reliance on imported petroleum products has decreased dramatically.

Fuel imports fell drastically to $10 billion in 2025, down from $14.06 billion the year before, an almost 29 percent decrease.

However, this development was partially offset by an increase in non-oil imports, which rose to $29.24 billion from $25.74 billion in 2024, indicating sustained demand for foreign goods.

The central bank's report further highlighted a rise in investment outflows, as Nigerians raised their holdings in both direct and portfolio investments abroad this past year.

Overall, Nigeria's balance of payments remained favorable, with a surplus of $4.23 billion in 2025. Though this sum is lower than the $6.83 billion reported in 2024, it still represents a rather stable external position.

Meanwhile, the country's external reserves expanded, reaching $45.75 billion at the end of December 2025. This marks a 13.83 percent gain year on year, aided by increased inflows and improved external buffers.

By Chinedu Okafor, Business Insider Africa

Could Nigeria become an alternative oil supplier to the Middle East?

As the conflict in the Middle East continues to take a significant toll on the world's oil supply, Nigeria's foreign minister has invited the Gulf countries and oil producers to look at Nigeria as a partner in supplying the global market. Story by Clémence Waller and Gabrielle Nadler.

France 24

Nigeria positions oil sector amid Iran conflict

Nigeria positions oil sector amid Iran conflict With the Strait of Hormuz partially blocked and oil prices volatile, Nigeria’s Foreign Minister is engaging directly with Gulf producers. He urged them to view Nigeria not as a competitor but as a strategic diversification partner, arguing that the current market uncertainty presents a prime opportunity for Nigeria to leverage its position on the global stage.

CGTN Africa