Friday, September 30, 2022

Most Popular Candidate in Race to Become Nigerian President Plans Budget Revamp

A third-party presidential candidate trying to capitalize on widespread discontent in Nigeria said he’ll scrap multibillion-dollar fuel subsidies and restructure debt to free up funds to tackle insecurity and boost investment if he wins the election next year.


Peter Obi -- a former state governor and banker -- has emerged as the politician with the best chance of upending the two-party status quo that has ruled Africa’s most-populous country for more than 20 years. His bid to replace President Muhammadu Buhari has swiftly gained a following that hopes to grow its momentum in the run-up to the vote in February.

“I am in it to bring the change that Nigeria has been missing all these years,” Obi said in an interview in the capital, Abuja.

His rivals are Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress and Atiku Abubakar of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party, whose political organizations have provided every head of state since 1999 and dominate both legislative chambers.

Obi faces an uphill battle against stalwarts of parties that know how to turn out voters -- he is running on the ticket of the Labour Party, which had a single lawmaker elected in the last election and has a much smaller presence throughout the vast West African country.

‘Fiscal Recklessness’

Despite these major organizational challenges, Obi has built up an enthusiastic base known as “Obidents” -- initially active online, but increasingly marching in the streets -- and his appeal appears to be spreading. A clear majority of respondents named him as their preferred choice in an opinion poll conducted for Bloomberg News by Premise Data Corp., whose results were released on Sept. 28 when the official campaign kicked off.

Read: A Surprise Presidential Candidate Leads Nigeria Race, Poll Shows

Nigerians are contending with accelerating inflation, rising unemployment, a depreciating currency and pervasive insecurity. Production of the economy’s historic mainstay -- crude oil -- has collapsed to multi-decade lows, while the government’s debt service bill is currently outpacing the revenue it’s earning. Total public debt has more than tripled to 42.8 trillion naira ($98 billion) since Buhari took office in 2015.

“We cannot continue this level of fiscal recklessness,” Obi said, adding that he would cut gasoline subsidies that give Nigerians some of the world’s cheapest pump prices. That intervention is consistently depriving the state of more than $1 billion per month and, if not phased out, could cost the government a sum greater than its entire income next year.

Read: Nigeria Projects Dire Fiscal Situation Without Subsidy Removal

“We are going to remove it,” he said, arguing that corruption accounts for half of the subsidy bill.

Buhari’s administration delayed its previously announced plans to shelve the subsidies until after the election, leaving his successor the politically thorny choice of whether to expose struggling consumers to considerably higher prices to spare much-needed funds for other investments.

If he wins, Obi said he will try to restructure Nigeria’s debt “to a manageable level” because the current burden “doesn’t give us breathing space to invest in critical areas.” Instead of “borrowing for consumption” and to finance the cost of government, new lending would fund spending on education, health and security, he said.

Violent groups have expanded their reach across Nigeria in the past seven years, leaving larger swathes of the country living in fear of attacks and kidnappings. Stemming that insecurity will be his “number one priority,” Obi said, adding he will decentralize the police and invest in more personnel.

The stakes could not be higher, according to Obi. Because the government no longer controls its territory or the economy, Nigeria meets the “two main critical measures of a failing state,” he said. “It is a crisis situation but it’s solvable.”


Improbable Outsider

A wealthy businessman who chaired local lender Fidelity Bank Plc before serving two terms as the governor of the southeastern Anambra state from 2006, Obi ran as Abubakar’s vice president in an unsuccessful campaign three years ago. He also contested the PDP nomination this year before withdrawing from the primaries. A 61-year-old in a country where 70% of the population is under 30, he is younger than his two main septuagenarian opponents.

The Labour Party candidate also attracted controversy last year when a Nigerian online newspaper reported, based on the Pandora Papers leak, on offshore companies he controlled while serving as governor and said he had breached local asset-declaration rules. Obi has repeatedly denied that his arrangements broke any laws.

Obi says he’s ready to face up to the hopes and frustrations that have been placed on his perhaps improbable shoulders. “I want the whole country to hold me responsible,” he said. “We are not going to change it overnight but we must start doing the right things. I am not going to do magic.”

By William Clowes

Bloomberg

Related story: Video - Presidential hopeful Peter Obi on his plans for Nigeria


Jobs in Clean Energy in Nigeria to Double by 2023

Increased demand for solar power will drive a more than two-fold jump in the number of Nigerians working in the renewable energy sector by 2023, according to a report.

The sector could “create more than 76,000 new jobs by 2023” in solar services -- including home solutions, commercial and industrial appliances -- from 32,000 workers in 2019, according to a report by Power for All, a global coalition advocating renewable energy solutions to end blackouts.

Workers in the Nigerian renewable industry will exceed oil and gas employees totaling 65,000, the report said. Until August this year, Nigeria was Africa’s biggest producer of crude with one of the world’s largest gas reserves. Poor power supply and a more than 200% increase in diesel prices this year after Russia invaded Ukraine, have driven demand for solar power in the West African nation.

The research, which was supported by The Rockefeller Foundation, Good Energies Foundation and the European Programme GET.invest, is the outcome of a survey on employment and compensation in more than 350 companies across five countries namely Ethiopia, India, Kenya, Nigeria, and Uganda. Out of the five countries, Nigeria had the “fastest post-pandemic recovery and growth in decentralized renewable energy jobs,” it said.

Africa’s most populous nation has pledged to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by a fifth over the next decade under the Paris climate agreement. It launched an energy transition plan this year, which aims to attract private and public sector investments to expand solar infrastructure and grow gas-powered generation.

Read: Shell Acquires Nigerian Solar Firm in First Africa Power Buy

The country’s solar sector quickly recovered from lockdowns during the pandemic as it more than doubled workers to 50,000 in 2021, compared to the previous year, according to the report.

“The sector is maturing with the percentage of formal and skilled workers comprising over half of the decentralized renewable energy workforce,” it said.

By Emele Onu

Bloomberg

Thursday, September 29, 2022

Nigeria squanders oil price bonanza as gasoline subsidies soar

Nigeria has failed to capitalise on an oil price boom that has helped cushion other exporters from the impact of inflation, with millions more Nigerians now facing poverty.

Data from Nigeria's state oil company NNPC shows that it did not contribute anything to state coffers in the first eight months of 2022, despite crude prices averaging $94 a barrel so far this year, a rise of 42% from last year.

At the heart of Nigeria's problem is that despite being Africa's biggest oil and gas producer, the country depends almost entirely on imports to cover its gasoline needs.

It then subsidises the cost to consumers, which has created a disparity between the price at the pump and what people pay to fill their tanks in neighbouring countries, such as Benin.

This has led to widespread smuggling, which has in turn driven up the amount of costly gasoline Nigeria imports and wiped out the gains that it should have made from crude exports because it ends up buying far more than it needs.

"Hundreds of thousands of people (in Benin) organize their survival around this traffic," Boris Houenou, a Beninois economist said of the smuggling of Nigerian gasoline.

"A litre of Nigerian petrol worth $0.45 (per litre) can be passed to Benin for $0.70," he added.

Estimates of the amount of gasoline smuggled abroad vary, with some independent researchers putting it at around 15 million litres a day, while NNPC's own assessment is 42 million.

Nigerian National Petroleum Co (NNPC) said this month that gasoline smuggling was distorting supplies, adding that it was working to crack down on it.

The NNPC's federal account allocation (FAAC) shows it remitted just over $3 billion from oil and gas sales to Nigeria's federal account in 2020, falling to about $1.4 billion in 2021 and dropping to zero in 2022.

Nigerian oil production has fallen to 1-1.2 million bpd from pre-pandemic levels of 1.8 million bpd after decades of under-investment in upstream assets, while pipeline theft is at its highest level in years, at an estimated at 200,000 barrels per day (bpd).

Gasoline imports, meanwhile, have ballooned to more than double Nigeria's estimated needs this year, Reuters calculations based on the FAAC data indicate.

"We've moved from 30 million litres a day to 90 million during this administration without anything to show that consumption has actually increased," said Cheta Nwanze, lead partner at Lagos-based risk consultancy SBM Intelligence.

NNPC recorded gasoline deliveries of 90 million litres a day in March and 83 million in April, Reuters calculations showed. In the same months last year, imports were 64 and 63 million litres respectively, well above national demand.

Nigeria's reliance on imported oil products looks set to continue, two industry sources with knowledge of the matter said, with a new refinery near Lagos unlikely to come online until the end of 2023 and a revamp of the 210,000 barrel-per-day Port Harcourt facility expected to take several years.

NNPC and Nigeria's finance ministry did not respond to multiple Reuters requests for comment.
 

'CURIOUS CASE'

Although the Nigerian government announced plans to remove the gasoline subsidy last year, it then backtracked in July, citing concerns over potential social unrest.

The World Bank estimates inflationary pressures will tip 7 million more Nigerians into poverty this year, bringing the total to 45% of the population of 200 million.

"Despite the better-than-expected performance of the services and agriculture sectors and higher oil prices ... Nigeria is experiencing a curious case of lower fiscal revenues," Marco Hernandez, World Bank Lead Economist for Nigeria, said in a June development Report.

"This is limiting the government's ability to expand basic services, support the economic recovery, and protect the poor during this difficult time," Hernandez added in the report.

Nigeria's Finance Minister Zainab Ahmed has repeatedly warned about the high cost of gasoline subsidies, saying the bill could reach $16.2 billion in 2023.

And the World Bank estimated that foregone oil revenues would total 5 trillion naira ($12.04 billion) this year due to the subsidy, equivalent to 30% of Nigeria's entire budget.

In 2020, NNPC retained 4% of oil and gas sales to cover gasoline subsidies. This rose to 45% last year and in 2022 it has reached 83% of sales.

The increasing fuel subsidy is taking away money from capital expenditure and is a "major drainer to overall government revenues and fiscal position," Nigeria's finance ministry said in its latest budget projection in August.

"The subsidy on Petroleum Motor Spirit (PMS) supply has had significant adverse impact on government revenues," it added.

Nwanze of SBM Intelligence said: "The subsidy is a complete waste at this point, but it's politically explosive."

Nigeria holds presidential elections in February against a backdrop of price rises as a result of the Ukraine crisis and post-pandemic supply chain bottlenecks.

As well as the higher cost of gasoline purchases, a more costly swap contract has also come at a bad time.

Until the end of last year, NNPC covered domestic gasoline needs via Direct Sale Direct Purchase (DSDP) contracts.

Now NNPC is also buying ad hoc cargoes and through a Crude Oil Refining and Direct Partnership Agreement (CORDPA), which involves paying higher premiums and a trader waiting longer to receive its crude delivery as payment.

In May, for example, the DSDP premium was around $10 per tonne of gasoline, while the premium paid under a CORDPA was $22, according to NNPC's spreadsheets. Rates vary seasonally and for most of the year these levels had been $35 to about $50 a tonne. NNPC paid up $80 and $100 for some ad hoc cargoes.

And although gasoline is subsidised, the amount ordinary Nigerians pay at the pump remains higher than the set price.

In its FAAC reports for 2021 and 2022, NNPC set its subsidised price at 124 naira ($0.30) per litre, but the average pump price is closer to 200 naira per litre across many states.

"We should be reaping a bumper harvest but alas we are not," lamented one Nigerian official.

By Julia Payne

Reuters 

Related stories: The Criminals Undercutting Nigeria’s Oil Industry

Nigeria has the highest incidents of oil spills in the world

Nigerian Authorities Launch App to Monitor Crude Oil Theft

Ex-Militant Tapped to Protect Nigerian Pipelines He Once Blew Up

Wednesday, September 28, 2022

Video - Nigerian entrepreneur innovates technique to 'prevent flooding'



Flooding remains a major climate change concern in Nigeria. Over the years, irregular rainfall patterns have left many displaced from their homes and farmlands destroyed. One Nigerian entrepreneur is however changing the narrative with a newly adopted solution to flooding.

CGTN Africa

Nigeria's northwest faces worsening malnutrition

Nigeria faces worsening malnutrition in the northwest due to insecurity, high food prices and the impact of climate change, Medicines Sans Frontiers (MSF) said on Tuesday, calling for the region to be included in United Nations funding plans next year.

Gunmen have terrorised the northwest, killing and kidnapping people for ransom this year. Africa's most populous nation is already grappling with an Islamist insurgency that has displaced at least two million people in more than a decade.

Insecurity has prevented some farmers from planting in a region now experiencing some of its worst flooding in years.

MSF said it had witnessed extraordinarily high numbers of children with malnutrition in five states across the northwest, where about 100,000 were treated for acute malnutrition.

"With increasing insecurity, climate change and global inflation of food prices in a post-pandemic world, we can only imagine this crisis getting worse," Simba Tirima, MSF country representative in Nigeria, said.

"The Nigerian authorities need support to deal with a crisis of this magnitude."

Humanitarian aid groups have largely focused their attention on the northeast, where Nigeria's military is stepping up attacks against the Islamist insurgents.

By MacDonald Dzirutwe

Reuters