Nigeria’s naira weakened to a record low a day before the central bank decides on interest and exchange rates and as Morgan Stanley and Renaissance Capital forecast further declines for the currency battered by low oil prices.
The naira fell 3 percent, the most in a week, to 190.45 against the dollar before paring losses to trade at 190.30 as of 12:03 p.m. in Lagos. It will probably drop to 220 by the end of 2015, according to Yvonne Mhango, a sub-Saharan Africa economist for Renaissance Capital.
“We see no respite over the short term,” Johannesburg-based Mhango said in a note to clients. The reversal of inflows and low foreign-exchange reserves imply “a sizable naira depreciation is coming,” she said.
Policy makers in Nigeria, which relies on crude for 90 percent of export earnings and 70 percent of revenue, have reacted to oil prices more than halving since June with spending cuts and an increase in interest rates to a record 13 percent. The naira has still depreciated 13 percent in the past three months, the most among 24 African currencies tracked by Bloomberg.
The currency may weaken beyond 200 per dollar in the interbank market this year, while the central bank may devalue the official rate in auctions by 5 percent to 10 percent, Johannesburg-based Morgan Stanley analysts Michael Kafe and Andrea Masia said in an e-mailed note.
The central bank will keep rates at 13 percent, according to nine out of 12 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Morgan Stanley and Renaissance Capital predict a 100 basis points increase to 14 percent, while HSBC Plc estimates rates will rise to 13.5 percent.
Bloomberg
Related story: Naira falls to record low
Tuesday, January 20, 2015
Nigeria at top spot for most-watched frontier market
Nigeria has maintained its top spot as the frontier-market economy that is attracting the most attention from American and European multinationals for potential future investments.
This is according to the latest Wall street journal (WSJ) frontiers and frontier strategy group (FSG) frontier market sentiment index.
Despite February election causing jitters among investors, corporations are still watching the country.
Nigeria has held the top spot since the index was launched in June 2014 despite having endured a rough ride for the past few months.
The study was based around 200 multinational companies, the index, created exclusively for WSJ Frontiers by Washington-based consultancy FSG and tracks which frontier markets are targeted the most by major European and American firms.
The index also reveals trends in corporate thinking by tracking the rate of change in corporate sentiment among FSG’s clients such MasterCard and Cisco.
Corporate sentiment is calculated as the percentage of companies that include a country on their watch-list. If 50 of the 200 companies are watching a particular country, the sentiment index score would be 25 percent.
Nigeria’s travails have primarily been caused by its heavy reliance for foreign exchange and tax revenues on crude oil, whose price has slumped by more than 52 percent since June 2014.
Presidential elections are due in less than a month, and the outcome is still too close to call.
According to Nnamdi Chiekwu, a partner at New York-based corporate finance advisory firm Namdex Group, foreign companies are taking a long view on Nigeria. “The political uncertainty is putting everything on hold,” he says, “but companies that can afford to wait it out will find great opportunities there.”
Recent attacks by Boko Haram continue to have a negative impact on perceptions of Nigeria.
But for corporations looking beyond the short-term turmoil, the country’s problems may provide an opportunity to buy into Africa’s biggest economy at a discount. “Nigeria is about to enter a world of hurt but these are the times when you can really make a difference – both from investors’ point of view and corporates’,” says Matt Lasov, FSG’s global head of advisory and analytics.
Lasov argues that the sharp devaluation of the Naira will push up prices of imported products, encouraging Nigerians to buy more locally produced goods. “Companies that produce locally will capture a huge amount of market share,” he says.
At the same time, the Naira’s decline will make it cheaper for foreign firms to acquire Nigerian assets. “The reason the country is gaining more attention while other oil exporters’ appeal to corporations is shrinking is because companies are opportunistic,” Lasov adds.
Vietnam, with a gain of 1.98 percentage points, climbed to second place on the list. Like Nigeria, the country is a perennial favourite among frontier investors but has seen some turmoil over the past year.
The trends in corporate attention illustrate starkly the impact lower oil prices are having on other oil-dependent frontier markets. The three worst performers in terms of change in sentiment in this quarter’s survey are all oil exporters: Angola, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela.
Although lower oil prices are arguably beneficial for a significant proportion of frontier markets, the confusion and anxiety over the impact of the precipitous fall in prices hit the sector’s equities hard.
Dan Ojabo & Josephine okojie
Business Day
This is according to the latest Wall street journal (WSJ) frontiers and frontier strategy group (FSG) frontier market sentiment index.
Despite February election causing jitters among investors, corporations are still watching the country.
Nigeria has held the top spot since the index was launched in June 2014 despite having endured a rough ride for the past few months.
The study was based around 200 multinational companies, the index, created exclusively for WSJ Frontiers by Washington-based consultancy FSG and tracks which frontier markets are targeted the most by major European and American firms.
The index also reveals trends in corporate thinking by tracking the rate of change in corporate sentiment among FSG’s clients such MasterCard and Cisco.
Corporate sentiment is calculated as the percentage of companies that include a country on their watch-list. If 50 of the 200 companies are watching a particular country, the sentiment index score would be 25 percent.
Nigeria’s travails have primarily been caused by its heavy reliance for foreign exchange and tax revenues on crude oil, whose price has slumped by more than 52 percent since June 2014.
Presidential elections are due in less than a month, and the outcome is still too close to call.
According to Nnamdi Chiekwu, a partner at New York-based corporate finance advisory firm Namdex Group, foreign companies are taking a long view on Nigeria. “The political uncertainty is putting everything on hold,” he says, “but companies that can afford to wait it out will find great opportunities there.”
Recent attacks by Boko Haram continue to have a negative impact on perceptions of Nigeria.
But for corporations looking beyond the short-term turmoil, the country’s problems may provide an opportunity to buy into Africa’s biggest economy at a discount. “Nigeria is about to enter a world of hurt but these are the times when you can really make a difference – both from investors’ point of view and corporates’,” says Matt Lasov, FSG’s global head of advisory and analytics.
Lasov argues that the sharp devaluation of the Naira will push up prices of imported products, encouraging Nigerians to buy more locally produced goods. “Companies that produce locally will capture a huge amount of market share,” he says.
At the same time, the Naira’s decline will make it cheaper for foreign firms to acquire Nigerian assets. “The reason the country is gaining more attention while other oil exporters’ appeal to corporations is shrinking is because companies are opportunistic,” Lasov adds.
Vietnam, with a gain of 1.98 percentage points, climbed to second place on the list. Like Nigeria, the country is a perennial favourite among frontier investors but has seen some turmoil over the past year.
The trends in corporate attention illustrate starkly the impact lower oil prices are having on other oil-dependent frontier markets. The three worst performers in terms of change in sentiment in this quarter’s survey are all oil exporters: Angola, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela.
Although lower oil prices are arguably beneficial for a significant proportion of frontier markets, the confusion and anxiety over the impact of the precipitous fall in prices hit the sector’s equities hard.
Dan Ojabo & Josephine okojie
Business Day
Monday, January 19, 2015
Nigeria reduces fuel price
The Nigerian government has announced a reduction in the fuel price of petrol from N97 per litre to N87 per litre.
The Minister of Petroleum Resources, Diezani Alison-Madueke, said at a press conference at the presidential villa, Abuja, on Sunday that the new price regime would take effect at midnight today.
Mrs. Alison-Madueke said the N10 reduction in fuel price was necessitated by the reduction in crude oil prices in the international market.
The Petroleum Product Pricing Regulatory Agency [PPPRA] and the Department of Petroleum Resources [DPR] have been asked to enforce strict compliance with the new pricing regime as soon as it becomes effective, the minister said.
The new measure is a reversal of government’s policy on the matter.
The Minister of Finance, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, had insisted on December 17 that Nigeria would not reduce the pump price of fuel despite falling oil prices at the international market, until the revenue crisis occasioned by the dwindling oil rates is over.
Mrs. Okonjo-Iweala said at the time that the decision to review fuel price either upwards or downwards would only be taken after the current crisis in global oil prices had been settled.
But five days ago, on December 13, the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Muhammadu Buhari, called on the government to implement immediate price reduction on fuel products to reflect the downscaling in global oil prices.
Speaking through his campaign organization, the All Progressives Congress Presidential Campaign Council, Mr. Buhari asked the government to “stop stealing from Nigerians and allow them enjoy the relief that has come to consumers of petroleum products globally”.
The APC candidate had said, “The price of diesel which has been deregulated since 2009 still sells at the pump price of N150 and N170 per litre, the same pump price when the international benchmark per barrel of crude was over $100. Now that the international benchmark has dropped to $47.5 (USD) per barrel as at Monday, we ask: where is the deregulation and the relief which it ought to bring to local consumers of diesel?
“For the Nigerian consumers, unfortunately the collapse of crude oil price since October 2014 has not translated into any change in diesel, kerosene and PMS prices across the country.
“We challenge the federal government to reconcile the information on the website of the Petroleum Products Pricing and Regulatory Agency, indicating the maximum open market price of diesel per litre in December 2014 as being at N111.6 and the fact that the price has come down to less than $50 (USD) as at Monday.
“We want to posit that that the maximum indicative benchmark open consumers of diesel should pay is at a margin below N100 per litre. Therefore, Nigerians are being short-changed by about N50 to N70 on every litre of diesel sold by government.”
The Trade Union Congress [TUC] had earlier on January 5 asked the government to take advantage of the falling oil prices to reduce retail prices of petroleum products.
The TUC had argued that the best time to review the retail pump price of petrol was now, in line with the argument put forward by government in 2012 when the price was adjusted from N70 per litre to N97.
Premium Times
The Minister of Petroleum Resources, Diezani Alison-Madueke, said at a press conference at the presidential villa, Abuja, on Sunday that the new price regime would take effect at midnight today.
Mrs. Alison-Madueke said the N10 reduction in fuel price was necessitated by the reduction in crude oil prices in the international market.
The Petroleum Product Pricing Regulatory Agency [PPPRA] and the Department of Petroleum Resources [DPR] have been asked to enforce strict compliance with the new pricing regime as soon as it becomes effective, the minister said.
The new measure is a reversal of government’s policy on the matter.
The Minister of Finance, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, had insisted on December 17 that Nigeria would not reduce the pump price of fuel despite falling oil prices at the international market, until the revenue crisis occasioned by the dwindling oil rates is over.
Mrs. Okonjo-Iweala said at the time that the decision to review fuel price either upwards or downwards would only be taken after the current crisis in global oil prices had been settled.
But five days ago, on December 13, the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Muhammadu Buhari, called on the government to implement immediate price reduction on fuel products to reflect the downscaling in global oil prices.
Speaking through his campaign organization, the All Progressives Congress Presidential Campaign Council, Mr. Buhari asked the government to “stop stealing from Nigerians and allow them enjoy the relief that has come to consumers of petroleum products globally”.
The APC candidate had said, “The price of diesel which has been deregulated since 2009 still sells at the pump price of N150 and N170 per litre, the same pump price when the international benchmark per barrel of crude was over $100. Now that the international benchmark has dropped to $47.5 (USD) per barrel as at Monday, we ask: where is the deregulation and the relief which it ought to bring to local consumers of diesel?
“For the Nigerian consumers, unfortunately the collapse of crude oil price since October 2014 has not translated into any change in diesel, kerosene and PMS prices across the country.
“We challenge the federal government to reconcile the information on the website of the Petroleum Products Pricing and Regulatory Agency, indicating the maximum open market price of diesel per litre in December 2014 as being at N111.6 and the fact that the price has come down to less than $50 (USD) as at Monday.
“We want to posit that that the maximum indicative benchmark open consumers of diesel should pay is at a margin below N100 per litre. Therefore, Nigerians are being short-changed by about N50 to N70 on every litre of diesel sold by government.”
The Trade Union Congress [TUC] had earlier on January 5 asked the government to take advantage of the falling oil prices to reduce retail prices of petroleum products.
The TUC had argued that the best time to review the retail pump price of petrol was now, in line with the argument put forward by government in 2012 when the price was adjusted from N70 per litre to N97.
Premium Times
Suicide bomber attacks bus station in north-eastern Nigeria - 4 dead
A suicide bomber in north-eastern Nigeria has killed four people and injured other commuters at a bus station, witnesses have told the BBC.
He drove a car into the station on the outskirts of Potiskum in Yobe state, called over a girl selling water and then triggered the explosion, one said.
Potiskum has come under attack several times in the past from Islamist Boko Haram militants.
Last Sunday, two female suicide bombers targeted a market in the town.
That attack, in which four people died and more than 40 were injured, was blamed on Boko Haram - it has not commented.
Yobe is one of three states in north-eastern Nigeria which has been under a state of emergency for the last 20 months in a bid to end the Islamists' six-year insurgency.
But in that time militant Islamist group has managed to seize control of a number of towns and villages in the area as part of its campaign to impose an Islamic state.'Multinational force'
A man taking part in the rescue effort at Potiskum General Hospital told the BBC Hausa Service that he had seen five bodies, including that of the bomber, after the attack on Sunday morning.
He said that about 30 people were also injured as a result of the car bomb in the mainly Muslim town, which is Yobe state's commercial hub.
Both witnesses asked for their names to be withheld for their own security.
BBC
He drove a car into the station on the outskirts of Potiskum in Yobe state, called over a girl selling water and then triggered the explosion, one said.
Potiskum has come under attack several times in the past from Islamist Boko Haram militants.
Last Sunday, two female suicide bombers targeted a market in the town.
That attack, in which four people died and more than 40 were injured, was blamed on Boko Haram - it has not commented.
Yobe is one of three states in north-eastern Nigeria which has been under a state of emergency for the last 20 months in a bid to end the Islamists' six-year insurgency.
But in that time militant Islamist group has managed to seize control of a number of towns and villages in the area as part of its campaign to impose an Islamic state.'Multinational force'
A man taking part in the rescue effort at Potiskum General Hospital told the BBC Hausa Service that he had seen five bodies, including that of the bomber, after the attack on Sunday morning.
He said that about 30 people were also injured as a result of the car bomb in the mainly Muslim town, which is Yobe state's commercial hub.
Both witnesses asked for their names to be withheld for their own security.
BBC
Friday, January 16, 2015
Video - President Goodluck Jonathan visits Boko Haram hit North Eastern Nigeria
President Goodluck Jonathan makes surprise visit to insurgency-plagued northeast Nigeria, a rebuff to critics who say he has ignored the plight of victims of Boko Haram. Deborah Lutterbeck reports.
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