Fresh from his comfortable re-election, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari faces a huge hurdle to keep his vow to end the economy’s addiction to oil: win a lasting peace in the crude-rich Niger River delta.
The 76-year-old former military ruler will have to score a breakthrough that’s eluded previous governments in an area where armed groups and thieves pose a constant threat to the flow of crude. To carry out his plans to develop a backbone of stable power, roads and rail lines for agricultural expansion and industrialization in Africa’s most-populous nation, Buhari needs all the money he can get from oil, the source of two-thirds of government revenue.
“Oil revenue is still what dictates government spending and they will need to keep production going,” said Jubril Kareem, a Lagos-based analyst at Ecobank Energy Research. “Buhari has to be very smart in handling the situation because any disruptions will impact government revenue.”
While armed assaults in the region have eased, sabotage, protests and crude theft for local refining and sale to rogue vessels offshore are undermining Africa’s biggest oil industry.
Exports still haven’t recovered from militant attacks in 2016 that at one point slashed by as much as half the West African nation’s exports and combined with lower oil prices to push the economy into its first contraction in 25 years.
‘Rogue Economy’
Improving oil flows will require dismantling what Ledum Mitee, a minority rights activist in the delta, calls a “rogue economy” in the area. And Buhari is operating in hostile political terrain. In the presidential elections, he lost in the region to Atiku Abubakar, who’d promised to relinquish some federal control over oil resources if elected.
“While the militancy went down, there was an increase in artisanal refining and crude theft,” Mitee said. “At last count, that industry was employing about half a million youths in the Niger delta.”
Today Royal Dutch Shell Plc’s Nigerian unit and other operators of onshore pipelines face frequent breaches, with the key terminals of Bonny and Forcados often unable to meet export commitments.
The government has failed to meet its revenue targets in the past three years mainly due to lower-than-expected crude volumes, with only about 52 percent of expected income for 2018 realized by August, according to Finance Minister Zainab Ahmed.
Budget Pressure
In response, the Buhari administration has increased borrowing in local and international markets to pay the bills. The petroleum industry provides 90 percent of Nigeria’s foreign income.
If things don’t improve, the government will have to cut spending and will struggle to service its existing debts, Ahmed said in October. Oil production averaged 1.7 million barrels a day in the first nine months of 2018, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, 600,000 barrels short of the 2.3 million barrels per day on which the budget was based.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Corp. operates joint ventures with Shell, Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Total SA and Eni SpA that pump most of the nation’s oil.
Successive governments have failed for decades to deal with the Niger delta problem since ethnic minorities in the area began protesting against environmental damage and its impact on their fishing and farming livelihoods. The domination of the main ethnic groups -- Hausas of the north, the Yorubas of the southwest and the Igbos of the southeast -- and their grip on the oil riches, has fueled the resentment.
After the military government in 1995 executed nine Ogoni activists, including the writer Ken Saro-Wiwa, regional unrest spiraled into full-blown armed militancy in the past 15 years.
Amnesty Program
With Nigeria’s oil exports close to being crippled in 2008 by militant attacks, the then government of President Umaru Yar’adua cut a deal: stop the raids in return for amnesty and a rehabilitation plan for fighters, and a commitment to address the region’s demands for more local control of oil.
More than 20,000 former fighters signed on, receiving skills training and monthly stipends, while several former militant commanders received pipeline-protection contracts. Relative peace returned and oil output increased, reaching 2.2 million barrels a day by the time Buhari was elected in 2015.
When Buhari started to cancel the deals, attacks resumed and oil production plunged.
Buhari’s Choice
While he eventually resumed the payments, nothing has been done to address a 16-point set of demands for more local control of oil resources and investment in infrastructure to achieve peace presented to Buhari by the Pan-Niger Delta Elders Forum in December 2016.
More than two years later, the discussions haven’t advanced, according to Edwin Clark, the 93-year-old leader of the forum.
Buhari now faces the choice of resolving the delta problem or kicking the can down the road as most of his predecessors did, according to Mitee, the rights activist who led the government panel that initiated the amnesty plan in 2008.
“If the government wants to just play along and do some appeasement during the four years and carry over the fundamental problems, then it will just be business as usual,” he said. “In this case, we are transferring the doomsday to the future.”
By Dulue Mbachu and Elisha Bala-Gbogbo
Bloomberg
Wednesday, March 13, 2019
Tuesday, March 12, 2019
Video - Nigerian human trafficking survivor seeks justice in Mali
The government of Nigeria says itis starting the repatriation process of up to 20,000 girls who’ve been trafficked to Mali. In January, the national agency fighting human trafficking said many of these girls, who’ve been tricked with promises of getting jobs in Europe, ended up working as sex slaves in mining camps of Mali.
Precious is one of several thousand Nigerian girls and young women trafficked and sexually exploited in Mali. In two years she suffered countless indignities and almost lost her life. She is staying back to seek justice and compensation from the woman who trafficked her.
Related stories: Video - Nigeria struggles to rescue 20,000 girls from Mali sex trade
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Nigeria's international sex-trafficking ring
Parliament votes strenghten Buhari's leadership
Wins in Nigeria’s parliamentary vote look set to strengthen the position of President Muhammadu Buhari after his re-election last month, as he bids to boost a listless economy and defeat Islamic State fighters during his second and final term.
The former general’s party, the All Progressives Congress, has won more than 60 of the 109 Senate seats and is heading for a majority in the lower House of Representatives, according to partial results announced by the election commission.
The APC controlled the upper chamber during most of Buhari’s first term. But he regularly sparred with senior members, not least Senate President Bukola Saraki, which hindered his economic reforms and delayed the passing of budgets for months. Saraki’s loss of his seat in the Feb. 23 general elections and Buhari’s emphatic victory -- he won by a margin of 56 percent to 41 percent over opposition leader Atiku Abubakar -- mean the 76-year-old leader may have an easier ride from the legislature this time.
“The elections have strengthened Buhari’s parliamentary majority,” said Amaka Anku, the head of New York-based Eurasia Group’s Africa practice. “The upcoming battle for parliamentary leadership presents an opportunity for Buhari to forge a better relationship with the legislature and improve executive-legislative coordination. That could quicken the pace of routine governance tasks, like budget passage and confirmation of ministers.”
Buhari will need the help of lawmakers if he’s to make headway tackling Nigeria’s most pressing problems. While the constitution gives plenty of power to the president, many decisions -- including appointments of ministers and senior positions at the central bank -- have to be approved by the National Assembly.
“He is looking forward to a mutual and effective working relationship with the National Assembly toward improving the budgetary process and restoring the country to the January-December fiscal cycle,” the presidency said in a statement Monday. “The delay in the passage of budgets hindered timely execution of projects across the country.”
The economy, which is yet to fully recover from a 2014 crash in oil prices, and jobs will be a priority for Buhari. Growth accelerated to 1.9 percent last year, but it’s still far below the average of 7.4 percent during the first 15 years of this century. Unemployment almost tripled to 23 percent during Buhari’s first four years in power.
Islamic State
He’s also facing security threats, including an insurgency in the northeastern state of Borno being waged by Boko Haram and Islamic State and clashes between farmers and herders over grazing land that killed 2,000 people last year, according to Amnesty International.
“Buhari’s second term in office is unlikely to yield many surprises,” said Malte Liewerscheidt, an analyst at Teneo Intelligence in London. “Rather, Buhari 2.0 can be expected to double down on his well-known social intervention programs alongside a focus on infrastructure investment and protectionist policies. Moreover, major changes to the monetary and foreign-exchange policy seem unlikely, barring sustained shocks to global oil prices or domestic crude production.”
The central bank operates a system of multiple exchange rates and tightly manages the value of the naira, which the International Monetary Fund has said deters investors. Abubakar, Buhari’s main rival in the elections, pledged to float the currency if he won.
Nigerians also voted for governors in 29 of the country’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory last weekend, and results are still coming in. The APC won Lagos, the commercial capital. The European Union said there were “systemic failings” and condemned security agencies for barring citizens from counting centers in oil-rich Rivers state, which is held by Abubakar’s People’s Democratic Party.
Even if Buhari gets a strong majority in parliament, there’s no guarantee he’ll make decisions quicker, according to Eurasia. Critics say he’s responded slowly to crises since coming to power in 2015. And lawmakers, including those in his own party, may continue to defy him.“It should not be taken for granted that just because they belong to the same party they would take the same position on issues,” said Kemi Okenyodo, executive director of Partners West Africa-Nigeria, an organization that lobbies for good government.
By Paul Wallace
BBC
The former general’s party, the All Progressives Congress, has won more than 60 of the 109 Senate seats and is heading for a majority in the lower House of Representatives, according to partial results announced by the election commission.
The APC controlled the upper chamber during most of Buhari’s first term. But he regularly sparred with senior members, not least Senate President Bukola Saraki, which hindered his economic reforms and delayed the passing of budgets for months. Saraki’s loss of his seat in the Feb. 23 general elections and Buhari’s emphatic victory -- he won by a margin of 56 percent to 41 percent over opposition leader Atiku Abubakar -- mean the 76-year-old leader may have an easier ride from the legislature this time.
“The elections have strengthened Buhari’s parliamentary majority,” said Amaka Anku, the head of New York-based Eurasia Group’s Africa practice. “The upcoming battle for parliamentary leadership presents an opportunity for Buhari to forge a better relationship with the legislature and improve executive-legislative coordination. That could quicken the pace of routine governance tasks, like budget passage and confirmation of ministers.”
Buhari will need the help of lawmakers if he’s to make headway tackling Nigeria’s most pressing problems. While the constitution gives plenty of power to the president, many decisions -- including appointments of ministers and senior positions at the central bank -- have to be approved by the National Assembly.
“He is looking forward to a mutual and effective working relationship with the National Assembly toward improving the budgetary process and restoring the country to the January-December fiscal cycle,” the presidency said in a statement Monday. “The delay in the passage of budgets hindered timely execution of projects across the country.”
The economy, which is yet to fully recover from a 2014 crash in oil prices, and jobs will be a priority for Buhari. Growth accelerated to 1.9 percent last year, but it’s still far below the average of 7.4 percent during the first 15 years of this century. Unemployment almost tripled to 23 percent during Buhari’s first four years in power.
Islamic State
He’s also facing security threats, including an insurgency in the northeastern state of Borno being waged by Boko Haram and Islamic State and clashes between farmers and herders over grazing land that killed 2,000 people last year, according to Amnesty International.
“Buhari’s second term in office is unlikely to yield many surprises,” said Malte Liewerscheidt, an analyst at Teneo Intelligence in London. “Rather, Buhari 2.0 can be expected to double down on his well-known social intervention programs alongside a focus on infrastructure investment and protectionist policies. Moreover, major changes to the monetary and foreign-exchange policy seem unlikely, barring sustained shocks to global oil prices or domestic crude production.”
The central bank operates a system of multiple exchange rates and tightly manages the value of the naira, which the International Monetary Fund has said deters investors. Abubakar, Buhari’s main rival in the elections, pledged to float the currency if he won.
Nigerians also voted for governors in 29 of the country’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory last weekend, and results are still coming in. The APC won Lagos, the commercial capital. The European Union said there were “systemic failings” and condemned security agencies for barring citizens from counting centers in oil-rich Rivers state, which is held by Abubakar’s People’s Democratic Party.
Even if Buhari gets a strong majority in parliament, there’s no guarantee he’ll make decisions quicker, according to Eurasia. Critics say he’s responded slowly to crises since coming to power in 2015. And lawmakers, including those in his own party, may continue to defy him.“It should not be taken for granted that just because they belong to the same party they would take the same position on issues,” said Kemi Okenyodo, executive director of Partners West Africa-Nigeria, an organization that lobbies for good government.
By Paul Wallace
BBC
Monday, March 11, 2019
Video - Nigerian sex traffickers used fan-ids to exploit women and girls
According to reports Russia's World Cup was used by Nigerian sex traffickers to entrap unsuspecting women. Traffickers used fan IDs allowing visa free-entry into Russia to ferry women and girls into the country.
Friday, March 8, 2019
Women in Nigeria brace for local election upsets
Nigerian women are hoping to use Saturday's local elections to change the country's political dynamics by triggering an upset in the polls.
Women's groups have been mobilising support for female candidates seeking office, appealing to women voters to utilise their numerical strength to support their own during the governorship and state house of assembly elections.
"Women have to rise up and now that some of us are here to challenge the status quo, it should be an encouragement," Adebisi Ogunsanya, who is running for the first time, told Al Jazeera.
"I encourage them to vote for me because I understand what their problems are," Ogunsanya said on Thursday as campaigning ended.
She is seen as a dark horse in the race to become the governor of Lagos state because of her minimal political experience. She's also contesting under a new political platform, the Young Progressive Party (YPP), in the commercial capital, Lagos.
Ogunsanya will be up against 38 male and six other female candidates.
A total of 80 female candidates will be vying for state governorship positions across 29 states. They will face a total of 987 male candidates, many of whom are well-funded and grounded in political history.
However, what female candidates lack in financial muscle is compensated by their voting power as they constitute 47 percent - 39.6 million out of 84 million eligible voters registered by the electoral commission.
Breaking barriers
Women's groups such as the Nigerian Women Trust Fund (NWTF) are providing support to ease the burden of female candidates as part of its commitment to growing the pool of women in the political space.
"We are providing technical support to our women seeking elective positions. We encourage our women to vote women and we also encourage the women to pay attention to the manifestos of the various candidates," NWTF spokesperson Mufilat Fijabi told Al Jazeera.
The group, established in 2011, aims to address "growing concerns about gender imbalance in elective and appointive positions", according to a statement on its website.
'All-boys club'
Some political analysts, however, are not convinced women can pull off any major upsets in Saturday's elections.
"The top of the tickets for the major parties is basically an all-boys club. There will be a couple of female deputy governors but that won't be an upset," Stanley Azuakola, founder of vote-watchdog Civic Monitor, told Al Jazeera.
"Frankly, women are yet to collectively see the lack of female voices at the table as a serious issue," says Azuakola.
February's presidential and legislative elections were marred by allegations of violence, vote-rigging, and voter suppression.
This resulted in low voter turnout across the country with voters and electoral commission officials killed and injured.
The scale of the election violence, especially in Lagos, has left Ogunsanya and other candidates worried about security for Saturday's vote.
But she's confident women will turn out despite the risks to support female candidates.
"Barring any threats and violence, I expect the women to vote for me," said Ogunsanya.
By Mercy Abang
Al Jazeera
Women's groups have been mobilising support for female candidates seeking office, appealing to women voters to utilise their numerical strength to support their own during the governorship and state house of assembly elections.
"Women have to rise up and now that some of us are here to challenge the status quo, it should be an encouragement," Adebisi Ogunsanya, who is running for the first time, told Al Jazeera.
"I encourage them to vote for me because I understand what their problems are," Ogunsanya said on Thursday as campaigning ended.
She is seen as a dark horse in the race to become the governor of Lagos state because of her minimal political experience. She's also contesting under a new political platform, the Young Progressive Party (YPP), in the commercial capital, Lagos.
Ogunsanya will be up against 38 male and six other female candidates.
A total of 80 female candidates will be vying for state governorship positions across 29 states. They will face a total of 987 male candidates, many of whom are well-funded and grounded in political history.
However, what female candidates lack in financial muscle is compensated by their voting power as they constitute 47 percent - 39.6 million out of 84 million eligible voters registered by the electoral commission.
Breaking barriers
Women's groups such as the Nigerian Women Trust Fund (NWTF) are providing support to ease the burden of female candidates as part of its commitment to growing the pool of women in the political space.
"We are providing technical support to our women seeking elective positions. We encourage our women to vote women and we also encourage the women to pay attention to the manifestos of the various candidates," NWTF spokesperson Mufilat Fijabi told Al Jazeera.
The group, established in 2011, aims to address "growing concerns about gender imbalance in elective and appointive positions", according to a statement on its website.
'All-boys club'
Some political analysts, however, are not convinced women can pull off any major upsets in Saturday's elections.
"The top of the tickets for the major parties is basically an all-boys club. There will be a couple of female deputy governors but that won't be an upset," Stanley Azuakola, founder of vote-watchdog Civic Monitor, told Al Jazeera.
"Frankly, women are yet to collectively see the lack of female voices at the table as a serious issue," says Azuakola.
February's presidential and legislative elections were marred by allegations of violence, vote-rigging, and voter suppression.
This resulted in low voter turnout across the country with voters and electoral commission officials killed and injured.
The scale of the election violence, especially in Lagos, has left Ogunsanya and other candidates worried about security for Saturday's vote.
But she's confident women will turn out despite the risks to support female candidates.
"Barring any threats and violence, I expect the women to vote for me," said Ogunsanya.
By Mercy Abang
Al Jazeera
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