On Monday, Nigeria's President Muhammadu Buhari officially made June 12 a public holiday. The day celebrates 20 years of democracy in a country that was under military rule for decades after winning its independence from Britain in 1960. However, as the West African nation celebrates, worries about its fragile economy persist.
While Nigeria's economy has recovered since falling into a recession in 2016, that growth has been slower than expected.
"Unfortunately, growth in the country has remained relatively stagnant following their recovery out of recession in 2017," Christopher Dielmann, director of macroeconomic and sovereign research with Tellimer, told Al Jazeera."Estimates by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank suggests that Nigeria's growth in 2019 and 2020 will register at 2.1 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively. I think GDP (gross domestic product) should be growing at least double the population growth rate in order for the country to lift its people from poverty."
Today, Nigeria's oil-driven economy is less susceptible to any outside shocks such as falling oil prices, but disruption in domestic oil output remains a risk for Africa's largest economy.
Oil production risks
According to OPEC, Nigeria's oil and gas sector accounts for 65 percent of its government income.
"Oil production [in Nigeria] is on a long-term downwards trajectory," said Ed Hobey-Hamsher, a senior Africa analyst with global risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft. He explained that without the passage of the Petroleum Industry Governance Bill, which is meant to improve transparency and attract investment in Nigeria's oil and gas sector, its oil output would suffer. "Oil production is projected to peak next year before steadily declining throughout the 2020s."
Hobey-Hamsher says that lower oil output will translate into less government revenue for Nigeria, meaning less money for the government to pay its bills.
This will delay spending on government projects that are needed to grow the economy.
Those projects are "required to address the most significant bottlenecks to sustained and sustainable economic growth, namely the infrastructure deficit and unemployment," he said.
Not enough jobs
Unemployment remains high. According to Nigeria's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in the working-age group (15-64 years of age) unemployment has hit 23.1 percent. This is a five percent increase from 2017, when it was at 18.1 percent.
According to Dielmann, the biggest risk facing Nigeria is the lack of economic growth, rapid population increases, and increasing levels of unemployment.
This month, World Poverty Clock, a project of the World Data Lab which tracks income levels for individuals around the world, showed that more than 90 million Nigerians are now living in poverty. This is the second year in a row Nigeria has landed in the top spot of the World Poverty Clock. In May 2018 the country overtook India with the most people living in poverty.
World Poverty Clock defines poverty as living on less than $1.90 per day.
"Ultimately, the combination of these factors place a tremendous amount of social strain on the country's population that are not sustainable in the long term," Dielmann said.
"I think the GDP should be growing at least double the population growth rate in order for the country to lift its people out of poverty," Ayodele Akinwunmi, head of research with FSDH Merchant Bank Limited in Nigeria said. "So I expect a GDP growth rate range of 5-6 percent. This growth rate is achievable if the country can fix the identified constraints. Nigeria has achieved higher growth rates before."
By Dawn Kissi
Al Jazeera
Wednesday, June 12, 2019
The fast and furious motorcycle taxis in Nigeria
It is a few minutes after noon, and Abimbola Thomas needs to get to work. He is only 10km (6.213 miles) away from his office. At any other time of the day, this would have been a 10-minute journey, but not during Lagos lunch-hour traffic. If Thomas gets in a car, this trip could take him up to 120 minutes. To save time, Thomas hops on the back seat of one of the dozens of motorcycle taxis that are waiting for customers at stalls and shops downtown. He puts his arms around the driver's waist, and the pair speed off.While the Lagos State government does not officially promote motorbike taxis, growing demand for ways to reduce maddeningly long commute times is making an increasing number of people jump on the backs of two-wheeled taxis in Nigeria.
Tech companies are now trying to make it easier for riders like Thomas to link up with motorcycle taxis no matter where these urban passengers may be. Last year, several ride-hailing applications designed to connect riders with motorcycle taxis were launched. One is called the Gokada app.
'Okadas': controversy on Lagos' roads
Residents in Lagos call these two-wheeled taxis "okadas", because they are so much faster than cars. Okada is the name of Nigeria's first private commercial airline, Okada Air.
Motorcycle taxis first showed up in the country's commercial capital in the late 1990s.
During those early years, okadas got a bad reputation because of reckless operators and gruesome accidents. Back then, the number of broken bones and bloody limbs grew so fast that local media nicknamed a section of the National Orthopaedic Hospital Igbobi the "okada ward".
Today, riding okadas is a little safer because Lagos State restricts them to certain inner streets.
Ride-hailing in Africa
Uber debuted in West Africa five years ago. Since then, there have been several less-than-remarkable local efforts to duplicate the company's success in the United States. The standout appears to be ride-hailing apps for motorcycles because they are responding to Nigeria's unique market needs: They can zip through stalled traffic.
Users download an app and request rides on their smartphones, and branded motorcycles show up on demand. As an added feature, users can also hail branded bikes on the street. Since Gokada launched, three other motorcycle-hailing startups have debuted in Nigeria: Max, SafeBoda, and Oride.
Gokada boasts over 1,000 riders. Max, founded by two alumni of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the US, says it has over 1,000 motorcyclists.
Anticipating billion-dollar market growth, investors have thrown millions of dollars at these startups. Rise Capital and a consortium of local funders invested $5.3m in Gokada. The company plans to use the money, in part, to open a state-of-the-art driver-training school to verify up to 500 operators at a time, thereby increasing daily rides tenfold.
Operating in a grey area
Fahim Saleh, the cofounder and co-CEO of Gokada, admits his company exists in a grey area legally.
He says his team has exploited a Nigerian stipulation that says bikes with an engine capacity of greater than 200 cubic centimetres can travel on all major roads and highways. Some of Gokada's bikes have been seized by government officials for other infractions, but the service continues to grow. "They said if you can make it in New York, you can make it anywhere," Saleh smiles, dismissing life in Manhattan. "I've lived in New York. If you can make it in Nigeria, you can [really] make it anywhere!"
"A futuristic tech-enabled Lagos can have motorcycle taxis," he explains, citing examples in East Asia such as Go-Jek in Indonesia and Grab in Thailand. "Gokada is not only making incremental improvements, [but] we are going leaps and bounds to ensure our drivers are safe including weekly training, adequate safety gear, tech-enabled driver-behaviour tracking, intensive pre-screening, rapid-response in-house medics, and more. We really do care about our drivers and our customers."
Salleh's concern is warranted; 747 motorcycles were involved in road accidents during the fourth quarter of 2018, according to Nigeria's Bureau of Statistics. That's more than one out of every five accidents.
The cost of going slow
People in Lagos call traffic bottlenecks go-slows. Most residents spend more than two hours in traffic every workday. The cost of going slow is massive. According to one former Lagos State governor, every year, go-slows rob the city's economy of 42 billon naira ($11.6m) of economic output.
To understand why, consider the geography of Lagos. With a landmass of about 3,600 square kilometres, it is Nigeria's smallest state. However, more than 18 million people live in the city of Lagos. Five million registered vehicles - 200 vehicles per kilometre - cram onto the city's 9,100 roads and expressways each day.
Just get me to work
On his part, Abimbola Thomas, our harried commuter, was now used to the adrenaline rush of motorcycle taxi rides. He tapped an app on his smartphone and hailed a two-wheeler. It arrived within minutes and took him to his office on time. "Bikes are much more convenient as a form of transportation in Lagos," he called out as he sped off.
By Kayode Ogunbunmi
Al Jazeera
Monday, June 10, 2019
Kelechi Iheanacho dropped by Nigeria
Iheanacho was the only major omission by coach Gernot Rohr, who retained 15 players from the squad that went to the World Cup in Russia last year. Back-up goalkeeper Ikechukwu Ezenwa from Katsina United is the only home-based player in the squad.
Nigeria have been drawn to play in Group B against Guinea, Madagascar and Burundi, who they play first in Alexandria on June 22.
Squad:
Goalkeepers: Daniel Akpeyi (Kaizer Chiefs), Ikechukwu Ezenwa (Katsina United), Francis Uzoho (Anorthosis Famagusta)
Defenders: Olaoluwa Aina (Torino), Chidozie Awaziem(Rizespor), Leon Balogun (Brighton and Hove Albion), Jamilu Collins (Paderborn), William Troost Ekong (Udinese), Kenneth Omeruo (Leganes), Abdullahi Shehu (Bursaspor)
Midfielders: Oghenekaro Etebo (Stoke City), John Obi Mikel (Middlesbrough), Ahmed Musa (Al Nassr), Wilfred Ndidi (Leicester City), John Ogu (Hapoel Be'er Sheva)
Forwards: Samuel Chukwueze (Villarreal), Odion Ighalo (Shanghai Shenhua), Alex Iwobi (Arsenal), Samuel Kalu (Girondins Bordeaux), Paul Onuachu (Midtjylland), Henry Onyekuru (Galatasaray), Victor Osimhen (Charleroi), Moses Simon (Levante).
By Mark Gleeson
CNA
Gangs kill dozens in attacks in Nigeria
Gunmen have killed dozens of people in a wave of attacks in northern Nigeria, the latest violence by criminal gangs raiding villages and stealing livestock.
The series of attacks, carried out overnight Saturday to Sunday in northwestern Sokoto state, left at least 43 dead.
"They opened fire on the village indiscriminately," Abdullahi Dantani, from the village of Satiru where 18 people were murdered, told AFP news agency.
In Sokoto state's Rabah district, gunmen rode into four villages - Rukunni, Tsage, Giire and Kalfu - killing 25 people.
"Several domestic animals were rustled by the attackers," Ibrahim Kaoje, Sokoto state's top police officer, told AFP.
Four people were arrested in connection to those attacks, Kaoje said.
In separate attacks in Satiru village, in Sokoto's Isa district, the raiders shot 18 people, and then stole animals.
"We lost 18 people in the raid by the gunmen, who came into the village on motorcycles," said Satiru village resident Umeh Na-Ta'ala.
'Uptick in banditry'
The gangs have long been a scourge of rural communities in northern Nigeria, raiding villages, stealing cattle, burning homes, looting food and kidnapping for ransom.
The communities have taken up arms to defend themselves, although the vigilantes are often accused of extrajudicial killings of suspected bandits.
President Muhammadu Buhari condemned the killings, expressing "deep shock and sadness" in a statement issued late on Sunday.
"Perpetrators and sponsors of such dastardly acts (will) be held accountable," Buhari said.
Human Rights Watch on Monday warned of a "dramatic uptick in banditry, kidnapping and killings" in the northwestern states of Kaduna, Katsina and Zamfara, which border Sokoto state.
"Security forces have failed to respond effectively to threats to people's lives and security," the rights group said.
The gangs are one of several security challenges facing Nigeria, including attacks by fighters from Boko Haram in northeastern regions, as well as battles between livestock herders and settled farmers.
These have left the military overstretched and seen Buhari criticised for failing to protect lives and property.
Buhari, who was sworn in last month for a second four-year presidential term, has promised to boost security.
Al Jazeera
The series of attacks, carried out overnight Saturday to Sunday in northwestern Sokoto state, left at least 43 dead.
"They opened fire on the village indiscriminately," Abdullahi Dantani, from the village of Satiru where 18 people were murdered, told AFP news agency.
In Sokoto state's Rabah district, gunmen rode into four villages - Rukunni, Tsage, Giire and Kalfu - killing 25 people.
"Several domestic animals were rustled by the attackers," Ibrahim Kaoje, Sokoto state's top police officer, told AFP.
Four people were arrested in connection to those attacks, Kaoje said.
In separate attacks in Satiru village, in Sokoto's Isa district, the raiders shot 18 people, and then stole animals.
"We lost 18 people in the raid by the gunmen, who came into the village on motorcycles," said Satiru village resident Umeh Na-Ta'ala.
'Uptick in banditry'
The gangs have long been a scourge of rural communities in northern Nigeria, raiding villages, stealing cattle, burning homes, looting food and kidnapping for ransom.
The communities have taken up arms to defend themselves, although the vigilantes are often accused of extrajudicial killings of suspected bandits.
President Muhammadu Buhari condemned the killings, expressing "deep shock and sadness" in a statement issued late on Sunday.
"Perpetrators and sponsors of such dastardly acts (will) be held accountable," Buhari said.
Human Rights Watch on Monday warned of a "dramatic uptick in banditry, kidnapping and killings" in the northwestern states of Kaduna, Katsina and Zamfara, which border Sokoto state.
"Security forces have failed to respond effectively to threats to people's lives and security," the rights group said.
The gangs are one of several security challenges facing Nigeria, including attacks by fighters from Boko Haram in northeastern regions, as well as battles between livestock herders and settled farmers.
These have left the military overstretched and seen Buhari criticised for failing to protect lives and property.
Buhari, who was sworn in last month for a second four-year presidential term, has promised to boost security.
Al Jazeera
Friday, June 7, 2019
Nigeria shuts down privately owned TV and radio stations
Nigeria's broadcasting authority shut down private radio and television stations owned by a key opposition figure who hours earlier said his media operations were being targeted in a crackdown.
The National Broadcasting Commission (NBC) said on Thursday it suspended the license of Daar Communications Plc, owner of the African Independent Television (AIT) and RayPower FM for breach of broadcast codes.
NBC said in a statement it summoned the management of the stations to address alleged bias in their broadcasts and for failing to meet financial obligations to the regulatory authority.
The statement alleged the media organisations had "embarked on use of inflammatory, divisive, inciting broadcasts and media propaganda against the government and the NBC for performing its statutory functions of regulating the broadcast industry in Nigeria".
'Until further notice'
NBC said it made the license suspensions of AIT and RayPower FM "for failure to abide by the commission's directives and the provisions of the law".
"The shut down order is until further notice," the statement said.
The two broadcast stations are owned by business tycoon Raymond Dokpesi, who is also a key member of opposition People's Democratic Party (PDP).
Dokpesi earlier on Thursday accused NBC of intimidating his media empire on the instruction of the Nigerian presidency.
"We are on a road previously travelled. A media and press clampdown is in the offing," Dokpesi said hours before the suspension of his licence at a news conference.
Dokpesi established RayPower FM as a pioneering private radio in 1994 and AIT in 1998.
Reporters Without Borders places Nigeria 119th out of 180 on its World Press Freedom Index.
The media watchdog said journalists are often threatened, subjected to physical violence, or denied access to information by government officials, police, and sometimes the public itself.
Al Jazeera
The National Broadcasting Commission (NBC) said on Thursday it suspended the license of Daar Communications Plc, owner of the African Independent Television (AIT) and RayPower FM for breach of broadcast codes.
NBC said in a statement it summoned the management of the stations to address alleged bias in their broadcasts and for failing to meet financial obligations to the regulatory authority.
The statement alleged the media organisations had "embarked on use of inflammatory, divisive, inciting broadcasts and media propaganda against the government and the NBC for performing its statutory functions of regulating the broadcast industry in Nigeria".
'Until further notice'
NBC said it made the license suspensions of AIT and RayPower FM "for failure to abide by the commission's directives and the provisions of the law".
"The shut down order is until further notice," the statement said.
The two broadcast stations are owned by business tycoon Raymond Dokpesi, who is also a key member of opposition People's Democratic Party (PDP).
Dokpesi earlier on Thursday accused NBC of intimidating his media empire on the instruction of the Nigerian presidency.
"We are on a road previously travelled. A media and press clampdown is in the offing," Dokpesi said hours before the suspension of his licence at a news conference.
Dokpesi established RayPower FM as a pioneering private radio in 1994 and AIT in 1998.
Reporters Without Borders places Nigeria 119th out of 180 on its World Press Freedom Index.
The media watchdog said journalists are often threatened, subjected to physical violence, or denied access to information by government officials, police, and sometimes the public itself.
Al Jazeera
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