Jet fuel crisis: a boon for Nigeria's Dangote, but not for local airlines

Nigeria's giant Dangote refinery is benefiting from record margins for producing jet fuel that it is mostly selling abroad, while the domestic airlines it also supplies have threatened ​to stop flying because of the surge in fuel prices.

The refinery, the largest on the continent, was built to turn Africa's biggest oil producing ‌country into a net exporter of refined products, end Nigeria's reliance on fuel imports, and shield its economy from global energy shocks.

It became fully operational at the start of this year and is producing at its maximum capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.

That has improved local fuel availability but domestic fuel prices are still among the highest in Africa as Nigeria's market is fully deregulated, meaning fuel prices are ​not subsidised by the government as they are in most African countries.

The issue is further complicated by the state oil company's long-standing debt repayment agreements that ​mean Dangote has to import most of its crude oil, making it easier to balance its books if it sells abroad.

CLASH WITH ⁠THE NEEDS OF THE AVIATION INDUSTRY

Industry body the Airline Operators of Nigeria said prices, taking logistics and storage costs into account, have climbed to 3,300 naira ($2.44) per litre, ​nearly triple the level in February before the start of the Iran war.

Nigeria's energy regulator said Dangote was selling jet fuel at 1,879 naira ($1.39) per litre, little changed from imported fuel ​prices of about 1,900 naira ($1.41) per litre delivered to Lagos earlier this month.

The Middle Eastern conflict has led to unprecedented energy disruption and the risk of jet fuel shortages is pressing. Airlines around the world have hiked prices, added fuel surcharges and grounded planes.

Nigerian airlines last week threatened to halt all flights, prompting the government on Thursday to approve measures including some relief on debts owed by local airlines ​and ordering talks to try to agree lower prices.

DANGOTE'S MARGINS COULD BE EVEN BETTER?

Dangote, meanwhile, as a new, highly efficient refinery, has been able to take advantage of record margins ​for producing jet fuel from crude.

Its profits could be even higher if it could rely on Nigerian crude and avoid almost all freight costs.

State oil firm, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited’s ‌joint‑venture crude, ⁠however, is tied to oil-backed loans and pre‑export deals.

That means much of Nigeria's roughly 1.5 million barrels per day of production goes to paying debts to international oil majors, banks and traders. The NNPC does not disclose its obligations, but analysts estimate they amount to about 400,000 bpd.

Dangote Group Vice President Davekumar Edwin said Dangote imported most of its crude from the U.S., as well as some from other African producers and Brazil. He did not give precise figures.

He said the bulk of the 24 million litres of jet ​fuel it produces daily was shipped to Europe, ​although he also said the refinery ⁠largely supplied the needs of Nigerian airlines, which the aviation industry estimates at about 2.1 million litres per day.


EUROPEAN BUYERS ARE WILLING TO PAY UP

As European buyers are willing to pay a premium ahead of the peak demand summer travel season, European imports from ​Nigeria have averaged 78,000 to 96,000 barrels per day in April so far, data from Kpler and LSEG showed, the highest ​on record.

Alan Gelder, senior ⁠vice president for refining, chemicals and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie, said European refiners had earned about $15 per barrel.

He estimated Dangote's margins at more than double that as a result of access to Nigerian crude and the plant's scale and sophistication. Edwin did not disclose figures, but the profits from producing jet fuel hit a record on international markets in March.

Dangote, as ⁠a private refinery, ​prices its products in response to global markets, Gelder said, and that building a big refinery "does not ​automatically mean fuel prices fall".

Dangote plans to list shares in the coming months and is expanding the complex to 1.4 million bpd capacity, which could make it the world's largest refinery by the end of the ​decade.

By Macdonald Dzirutwe, Reuters

Dangote plans world’s largest refinery expansion, targeting 95,000 jobs

 

Africa’s largest industrial project is set to scale further, with Aliko Dangote announcing plans to expand the Dangote Refinery to a production capacity of 1.4 million barrels per day, a move expected to create up to 95,000 skilled jobs at peak construction.

Dangote made the disclosure in Lagos during his induction as an Honorary Fellow of the Nigerian Academy of Engineering, framing the expansion as a significant step in Nigeria’s industrialisation drive.

“This award is particularly meaningful because it recognises what we are doing in the industry,” he said, adding that the project would employ “about 95,000 skilled workers on site” at its peak.

Once completed, the upgraded facility is projected to surpass India’s Jamnagar Refinery to become the world’s largest refinery by capacity. The development is expected to strengthen Nigeria’s domestic refining capability, reduce reliance on imported fuel, and ease pressure on foreign exchange reserves.

Dangote said the expansion would rely heavily on local expertise, creating opportunities for engineers, technicians, and artisans, while also driving technology transfer and supporting the broader oil and gas value chain.

“The scale of this expansion reflects our confidence in Nigerian capacity and our belief that Africa can build world-class infrastructure,” he said.

Call for deeper Dangote investments

Industry observers note that the refinery has already been positioned as a cornerstone of Nigeria’s efforts to become a net exporter of refined petroleum products, with potential spillover effects across manufacturing and logistics.

In a separate development, Abdullahi Sule called on the Dangote Group to deepen its investments in Nasarawa State, citing its untapped mineral resources.

Speaking at the Nasarawa Trade Fair, Governor Sule, represented by a state official, said existing collaboration with the conglomerate could be expanded to support industrial growth.

He also referenced the group’s long-term investment ambitions, including a $100 billion target under its Vision 2030 strategy, suggesting such commitments could bolster small businesses and stimulate broader economic activity.

While the refinery expansion signals growing investor confidence in Nigeria’s industrial base, analysts say its long-term impact will depend on regulatory stability, infrastructure support, and global oil market dynamics.

By Segun Adeyemi, Business Insider Africa

Related story: Africa’s richest man sees his net worth surge by $3.21 billion

Nigeria stocks hit fresh record as $107 billion market extends one of world’s top rallies

Nigeria’s stock market closed at another record on Friday, extending one of the world’s strongest equity rallies this year as gains in banking and industrial shares lifted the Nigerian Exchange Limited’s total value to N145.3 trillion ($107.2 billion).

The benchmark NGX All-Share Index rose 1.3% to 225,724.33 points, taking gains to 3.94% over the past week, 12.34% over the past month, and 45.05% year-to-date.

A total of 627.4 million shares worth N44.39 billion ($32.7 million) were traded in 55,081 deals. Compared with the previous session, turnover rose 17%, while trading volume fell 6%.

Nigeria has become one of the standout frontier markets of 2026, helped by stronger corporate earnings, bank recapitalisations, domestic pension-fund demand and investor bets that economic reforms will improve long-term growth.

Banking shares dominated volumes, with Access Holdings, United Bank for Africa, Wema Bank and Zenith Bank among the most actively traded stocks.

Investors are now watching whether the market can cross the N150 trillion ($110.6 billion) milestone in coming sessions.

By Ayodeji Adegboyega, Business Insider Africa

Despite US troops and killer drones, Islamic State terrorizing Nigeria

Earlier this month, the United States, citing heightened risk of terror attacks, pulled all non-essential staff and their families from its embassy in Nigeria’s political capital, Abuja.

Nigeria responded in a typical fashion, issuing a statement acknowledging that American concerns are well intentioned but do “not reflect the overall security situation” in the country. Yet within days, a confidential memo emerged from Nigeria’s border security which has proven Washington’s assessment to be true.

According to the leaked memo, sleeper cells linked to Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Boko Haram are planning coordinated attacks targeting key facilities in the country’s capital. The list of targets reportedly includes a prison, a military detention centre and the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport. Caught flat-footed, Nigeria has neither confirmed nor denied the alert, but there are now noticeable security deployments and heavy fortifications at the respective target areas.

The significance of a possible terrorist attack on Abuja cannot be overstated. Apart from being the seat of government, Abuja is home to several diplomatic missions and corporate headquarters. As a result, it has a significant population of foreigners and members of the diplomatic community.

In 2011, Boko Haram detonated a car bomb at the office of the United Nations in Abuja, killing at least 18 people. Another suicide bombing at the headquarters of the Nigerian Police Force in June of the same year killed at least six people. Similar attacks continued in succeeding years, causing sustained anxiety within the diplomatic community even as foreign missions intensified security measures to protect staff and buildings. Indeed, the U.S. ordered a similar evacuation in October 2022 due to heightened risk of terror attacks on the capital.

Since 2009, Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, has been battling a complex and overlapping security crisis characterized by widespread kidnappings, banditry, and terrorist attacks across the country’s north. The crisis caught the attention of President Donald Trump last year, prompting him to redesignate Nigeria a Country of Particular Concern (CPC) for tolerating the slaughter of Christians — an accusation Nigeria fervently rejected.

Trump also threatened military action if Nigeria’s government failed to act to protect Christians. On Christmas Day last year, he followed up on the threat by authorizing an airstrike against ISIS-affiliated targets in North Western Sokoto state.

The diplomatic row that ensued prompted Nigeria to launch a desperate public relations effort and hire Washington-based DCI Group for $9 million to manage its image on Capitol Hill. Also hired was Valcour Global Public Strategy, a Washington-based lobbying firm, for the “purpose of strengthening the bilateral relationship” between Nigeria and the U.S.

Tensions cooled in January when Washington began to tone down its harsh criticism, preferring instead to work jointly with Nigeria’s government to tackle the crisis. In February, Washington deployed 200 troops alongside multiple MQ-9 reaper drones to assist the country with training and intelligence gathering.

But neither the increased U.S. support nor the extensive PR on Capitol hill has stopped the killings — be it of Christians or Muslims. In early February, gunmen suspected to be members of Boko Haram or the ISIS-affiliated Lakurawa group attacked Woro and Nuku, two Muslim-majority villages in Kwara state, killing between 170 and 200 people.

Survivors reported that the community was targeted because residents refused to join the jihadists or accept their extremist interpretation of Islam. Attackers reportedly bound victims' hands and executed them, while others were trapped and burned alive inside shops. Likewise on Palm Sunday, March 29, at least 20 people were killed during an attack by the Fulani militia on Angwan Rukuba, a Christian community in Nigeria’s North Central state of Plateau.

Nigeria’s President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, promised grieving Nigerians in Jos, Plateau state, that “this experience will not repeat itself,” but in the meantime more than five other states notably Nasarawa, Zamfara, Borno, Benue and Kaduna have recorded fresh massacres of Christians, signaling a breakdown of public order.

At the same time, large-scale abductions are gradually becoming normalized across the country, with Amnesty International estimating over 1,100 people kidnapped between January and April this year. According to UNHCR, over 3.7 million Nigerians are internally displaced as of early 2026 because of the expanding violence.

The resurgence of jihadist operations in Nigeria fits into a regional pattern where groups such as Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) have carried out mass fatality attacks and laid siege on cities and towns across the Sahel, especially in Mali and Burkina Faso.

Indeed, the planned Jihadist attack in Abuja mimics a dramatic operation by the Islamic State Sahel Province earlier in January in neighboring Niger Republic. During that incident on January 30, militants armed with explosives launched a major attack on Diori Hamani International Airport and the adjacent Base 101 in Niamey injuring four soldiers while several passenger planes and military hangars were destroyed.

A similar attack on the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, the only airport in Nigeria’s capital catering for between 3 and 5 million passengers annually, could be catastrophic.

But thwarting one single attack is not the same as decisively winning the war on terror. While the U.S. has poured about $1.8 billion in weapons sales into Nigeria over the last decade, the operational challenges of an overstretched army deployed across a region that is far larger than France remain unresolved. The immediate consequence is that, even when troops dislodge fighters and retake territory, they are often unable to hold it long enough to guarantee long-term success.

Meanwhile the fast-moving security crisis continues to deteriorate and expand rapidly, leaving the current counter-terrorism approach dangerously lagging behind. According to the Institute of Security Studies, the resilience of jihadist groups in Nigeria derives partly from the existence of vast ungoverned spaces that serve as ecosystems for them to regroup and re-arm.

For Nigeria to win the war on terror, military force must be combined with urgent governance reforms to expand state presence to every nook and cranny of the country through services and accountability. Only this can enhance local resilience and deny terrorists the vacuum they exploit for recruitment and control.

By Taiwo Hassan, Responsible Statecraft

Related story: Turkey to train 200 Nigerian special forces soldiers under new defence deal

US drones deployed to Nigeria alongside troops for intelligence, training

Boko Haram violence: Abuja buries senior army officers killed in attacks

President Tinubu seeks parliament's approval for $516 million highway loan

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu has asked parliament to approve a $516 ​million foreign loan to help finance the ‌first sections of a new national highway, a major transport corridor linking the country's northwest to ​its southwest.

In a letter read by ​the Senate's president during a plenary session ⁠on Thursday, Tinubu said the government was ​seeking approval for the syndicated financing facility from ​Deutsche Bank, adding the loan was part of the government's medium-term borrowing plan approved by lawmakers.

The loan ​would have a nine-year tenor, including up ​to three years' grace, Tinubu said in the letter.

The ‌roughly ⁠1,000-km (600-mile) highway will link Sokoto state, in Nigeria's northwest, through the central Niger and Kwara states to the coastal town of Badagry ​in Lagos, ​the commercial ⁠capital.

Tinubu said the highway would deepen north–south links, cut travel times ​and haulage costs, lift trade and ​food ⁠security, and bolster national integration.

Last year, Nigeria raised a $747 million syndicated loan, led by Deutsche ⁠Bank, ​to fund the first ​phase of a planned 700-km (435-mile) coastal highway.

By Camillus Eboh, Reuters