The latest alert by the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), warning that 35 million Nigerians could fall into severe hunger during the 2026 lean season, is not a distant forecast. It reflects a brutal reality already unfolding across the country. Events in the past few weeks alone have laid bare the fragility of Nigeria’s food security and validated the concerns long expressed by humanitarian agencies, local communities, and agricultural experts. The warning is both a wake-up call and a damning verdict on the government’s response to the intersecting crises of insecurity, climate change, and economic hardship.
For years, successive administrations have repeatedly emphasised food security as a national priority. Yet, the lived experiences of farmers, traders, and rural communities reveal a stark contradiction. While the government launches yet another initiative, programme, or roadmap, farmers, the bedrock of the nation’s food supply, are being chased from their lands, killed, kidnapped for ransom, or forced to seek refuge in overcrowded camps. In some regions, they are compelled to pay “protection levies” to terrorists just to access their own farmlands. Farming, once a proud and rewarding livelihood, is now synonymous with fear, uncertainty, and death.
A nation where food producers must negotiate access to their fields with armed groups cannot claim to be mindful of food security. No matter the agricultural policies announced in Abuja, the reality in rural Nigeria remains that insecurity has become the single greatest threat to food production. Until the government deploys a coordinated, decisive response to the security crisis, hope to reduce food import dependency or stabilise food prices will remain a mirage.
The WFP Country Director, David Stevenson, underscored the extent of the crisis when he reported that Northern Nigeria is experiencing the worst hunger levels in a decade. According to the latest Cadre Harmonisé analysis, nearly six million people in Borno, Adamawa and Yobe alone will face crisis-level hunger or worse from June to August 2026. Particularly worrying is the projection that at least 15,000 people in Borno could slip into Phase 5 catastrophic, famine-like conditions, if the current trends persist. These are not just numbers; they are human lives, families, children, and communities caught in a web of violence and vulnerability.
Children, as always, bear the heaviest burden. Malnutrition rates are highest across Borno, Yobe, Sokoto, and Zamfara, made worse by the scaling down of WFP nutrition programmes due to funding constraints. With clinics shutting down and humanitarian workers unable to safely access many communities, severe acute malnutrition has escalated from “serious” to “critical” in large parts of the North-East. Each closure of a nutrition centre translates to children losing their last lifeline.
But insecurity is not the only force driving Nigeria toward the brink of famine. Climate change has intensified the threats facing already vulnerable communities. Erratic rainfall, hotter temperatures, prolonged dry spells, and devastating floods have disrupted traditional farming cycles. Rivers, lakes, and streams that once supported farming and herding are disappearing or drying earlier than expected. The shrinking of waters across Northern Nigeria has forced pastoralists to expand their search for grazing lands, worsening the already volatile herder-farmer conflicts and deepening communal tensions.
The Lake Chad Basin, historically a major source of livelihood for millions, continues to recede, leaving behind barren land, displaced people, and lost income streams. In other states, wetlands that supported rice cultivation have become dry or saline. Without water for irrigation or livestock, many farming communities are left with no option but to migrate, abandon their land, or compete violently for remaining resources. Climate change, therefore, is not a distant environmental concern: it is a direct multiplier of hunger, insecurity, and displacement.
The menace of armed herders further complicates this landscape. Farmers across the Middle Belt and southern states continue to face violent incursions into farmlands, with crops destroyed and communities attacked. In many cases, these clashes have escalated into deadly confrontations that displace entire populations and deter farming activities. The lack of a concrete national strategy to modernise livestock production or enforce land-use policies ensures that the cycle of violence continues, threatening food-producing regions far beyond the North.
The convergence of these crises, insecurity, climate change, herder-farmer conflict, and economic distress has created a perfect storm that could plunge Africa’s most populous nation into a widespread hunger emergency. The implications extend far beyond food shortages. As the WFP warns, hunger itself can fuel further instability. Insurgent groups often exploit food scarcity to recruit desperate youths, impose control over communities, and expand their influence across fragile regions.
The consequences of failing to act are dire: increasing displacement, rising food prices, mass poverty, and a growing humanitarian burden that Nigeria’s already strained institutions are ill-equipped to handle.
To avert this looming catastrophe, Nigeria must adopt bold, pragmatic, and urgent measures. What is needed now is strategic action grounded in political will, community engagement, and accountability.
First, secure food-producing regions with specialised military and civilian units. Protection of agricultural hubs should be treated as a national security priority. Nigeria must deploy dedicated agro-ranger units, rapid-response battalions, and community-supported security outfits to reclaim farmlands from insurgents, bandits, and violent herder militias. The goal is to create safe corridors for cultivation, harvesting, and distribution.
Second, dismantle terrorist taxation networks. One of the most disturbing trends is the imposition of “farming levies” by terrorists. Government intelligence agencies must identify the logistics, collaborators, and financial channels that make these extortions possible. Cutting off this revenue pipeline is critical to weakening insurgent operations.
Thirdly, climate-proof Nigeria’s agricultural system. Nigeria needs substantial investment in irrigation systems, watershed restoration, and drought-resistant crop varieties. Rehabilitating degraded lakes and river basins, especially in the North-East, will help rebuild livelihoods. Climate prediction tools, early-warning systems, and farmer training on adaptive practices should be widely deployed.
Fourth, resolve herder-farmer conflicts through policy reform, not force. Nigeria must adopt modern livestock management policies, including ranching and regulated grazing reserves, backed by enforceable land-use legislation. This will reduce the pressure on farmlands, curb clashes, and support peaceful coexistence.
Fifth, strengthen food aid coordination and humanitarian funding. With WFP warning of imminent resource depletion, Nigeria must work with international partners to mobilise financing, expand access to vulnerable areas, and protect humanitarian workers. A revitalised national food reserve system, managed professionally and shielded from political interference, is also essential.
Sixth, empower local governance and early-response systems. Local governments should be given the autonomy and resources to support community security structures, manage relief distribution, and coordinate climate and conflict early-warning mechanisms tailored to their unique realities.
The warning from the UN is not merely a statistical projection; it is a mirror reflecting the nation’s failures, vulnerabilities, and urgent priorities. A country that cannot protect its farmers cannot feed its people.
The window for action is rapidly closing. But with decisive leadership, coordinated policy reforms, and a genuine commitment to securing rural communities, the nation can still avert the worst and restore hope to millions.
