A mystery container of weapons suddenly appeared this week at the Tin Can Island port in Lagos, Nigeria. Upon opening, the Nigerian Customs Service found it loaded with 440 arms and ammunition of various sizes and designs.
This was the second time in four months that a shipment with weapons was intercepted at one of Lagos’ ports. In January, the container had 661 weapons, and suspects were arrested. While covered by Nigeria’s newspapers as an ordinary daily event, the timing of the weapon finds is particularly unnerving. Nigeria’s political and military circles have been swirling with rumors that that some unknown people are discussing a military coup. How do we know? Because the military has come out to refute such allegations.
The chief of Army staff Tukur Buratai on May 16 issued a statementsaying the Army had “received information that some individuals have been approaching some officers and soldiers for undisclosed political reasons.” He warned “such persons to desist from these acts.” Soon after various key politicians, union leaders and pretty much everyonewho was anyone queued up to denounce the idea of a coup or supporting any such thing.
Coup talk has revived because president Muhammadu Buhari is again on an extended medical leave for an undisclosed length of time while his vice president Yemi Osinbajo acts in his place. It’s the second time Buhari has been absent this year; last time, the president was away for 50 days.
African countries have a long history of military coups taking place while the president is away. But many of those coups took place in an Africa that is different from today and certainly Nigeria is a different place from 1993, the last time a coup occurred. Most Nigerians hadn’t yet been born—the country’s median age is under 21.
Many can’t fathom, much less support, the idea of a coup. Nigeria’s current political uncertainty has more to do with whether: a) Buhari is healthy enough to continue in office; b) If not, should Osinbajo stay on as president till 2019 when the next elections are due; and, most crucially of all, c) Whether Osinbajo, who hails from Ogun state in Nigeria’s southwest, would be allowed to run for president in 2019 given the unwritten political agreement not to have a southerner running then. Based on the unofficial power-sharing pact, the presidency is meant to rotate between the north and south at eight-year intervals. With the uncertainty over the health of northerner Buhari, the north likely fears losing their “tenure” to a southerner.
To make things even more complicated there are several other delicately balanced and significant political issues. Perhaps the best known outside the country is the Boko Haram insurgency which has devastated parts of Nigeria’s northeast over the past eight years. While Buhari’s government has made progress to contain the deadly terrorist insurgency—recovering swathes of territory and rescuing abductees—it has struggled handling the aftermath and now is dealing with a humanitarian crisis in the region. More than five million face acute food shortages in the northeast.
Meanwhile, the Niger Delta region, where most of Nigeria’s oil production is located, is calm for now, but requires constant government input to soothe unrest. Farther east, talk that a “republic of Biafra” will once again try to break away continues as secessionist groups call for a referendum. Many think the government’s brutal crackdown on pro-Biafra protests and its detention of the leader of a major pro-Biafra group is only making matters worse.
The biggest issue of all is the economy, which has suffered five straight quarters of recession. Though tiny shoots of recovery have emerged, the downturn has gone on long enough that key businesses and sectors are loudly complaining that the government hasn’t moved quickly enough to diversify the economy beyond oil production.
The drop in oil prices has kept Nigeria’s economy from rebounding. The Buhari government came into office just as oil began its great decline from the peak in 2014. “The Nigerian economy is not set for a dramatic turnaround anytime soon,” says Teneo Intelligence’s Manji Cheto.
The government has talked up the idea of diversifying the economy away from oil and gas exports, but while the ‘D’ word is a mantra from the lips of every government minister, especially when trying to convince investors to bet on Nigeria, oil still largely drives the economy.
“The key driver [of the economy] was the contraction in the oil sector, and we see this improving in the coming quarters,” says Razia Khan, chief Africa economist for Standard Chartered. Non-oil sectors are growing, notes Khan. Reforms to boost other exports have been put in place. Crucially, Central Bank policies boosting the supply of dollars to keep Nigeria’s currency stable has proven somewhat effective over the last few months.
The central bank’s solution may be temporary, says Nonso Obikili, a Lagos-based economist, given the continued demand for dollars on the black market. “The forex policy is still not ideal with multiple prices and multiple windows. It is not clear that an economy can grow under such market structure,” he says. “The structure is not equipped to deal with shocks, any of which could tip it back into chaos.”
Fears of a backlash should inflation spike due to the forex issue as well as increased politicking given current uncertainties could “militate against any serious reforms,” says Cheto.
Long-term, for Nigerians to see any notable impact, Obikili says the economy will require significant growth. “My fear is that we will remain in a low-growth scenario for a while—and for Nigeria, anything below 3% growth really means we are moving backwards given that population growth is estimated to be about 2.9%.”
Thursday, May 25, 2017
Wednesday, May 24, 2017
Video - Nigerian central bank keeps benchmark interest rate at 14%
Nigeria's central bank has kept its benchmark interest rate at 14 percent, after the statistics office said Africa's biggest economy contracted in the first quarter. Governor Godwin Emefiele says the bank's Monetary Policy Committee had voted to retain the headline rate. The statistics office has published data showing that Africa's biggest economy, in its second year of a recession caused by low oil prices, contracted in the first quarter by 0.52 percent.
Nigeria has been in recession for five quarters
Nigeria’s economic worries are not yet over. Statistically, at least.
With negative growth recorded for the fifth consecutive quarter,Nigeria’s economy remains mired in recession, according to newly published data by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). But, however slightly, the economy appears to be inching towards growth as even though the economy shrank by 0.52% in the first quarter of 2017, it represents an improvement compared to previous quarters.
Analysts suggest the slight improvement in GDP growth could mean the worst could be over for Nigeria’s economy. “The positive which can be taken from the figure is that the hemorrhaging has stopped, thus clearing the path to growth,” analysts at SBM Intelligence, a Lagos-based firm, commented in a note.
The negative growth rate since the start of last year has been mainly attributed to a drop in Nigeria’s foreign revenues, following the fall in price of oil—Nigeria’s main export. But just as critical, a brief resumption in militancy in the Niger Delta, the country’s oil-rich south last year saw oil production levels tank to 20-year lows, making a bad situation much worse. However, with a peace pact agreed with Niger Delta agitators, NBS data shows an uptick in average oil production levels which have now reached 1.8 million barrels per day (mbpd)—the highest point since the first quarter of 2016—but still some way off desired levels of around 2.2 mbpd.
Getting back to peak production levels is vital, not just for earnings but also to cushion the impact of a possible deal by OPEC to cut production. While OPEC agreed its first deal to cut production last November, Nigeria was exempt having suffered damage to its oil installations during militant attacks earlier in the year. But, with that deal set to be extended, that concession may no longer be available to Nigeria.
Just as importantly, the Nigerian government has also sought to stimulate growth by making it easier to do business in a country where excessive red-tape and corruption has often made things difficult. Last week, Nigeria’s presidency ordered reforms at local ports in a bid to boost exports and diversify its revenue sources and back in February, Nigeria’s Immigration Service relaxed its entry visa rules for tourists and investors.
With negative growth recorded for the fifth consecutive quarter,Nigeria’s economy remains mired in recession, according to newly published data by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). But, however slightly, the economy appears to be inching towards growth as even though the economy shrank by 0.52% in the first quarter of 2017, it represents an improvement compared to previous quarters.
Analysts suggest the slight improvement in GDP growth could mean the worst could be over for Nigeria’s economy. “The positive which can be taken from the figure is that the hemorrhaging has stopped, thus clearing the path to growth,” analysts at SBM Intelligence, a Lagos-based firm, commented in a note.
The negative growth rate since the start of last year has been mainly attributed to a drop in Nigeria’s foreign revenues, following the fall in price of oil—Nigeria’s main export. But just as critical, a brief resumption in militancy in the Niger Delta, the country’s oil-rich south last year saw oil production levels tank to 20-year lows, making a bad situation much worse. However, with a peace pact agreed with Niger Delta agitators, NBS data shows an uptick in average oil production levels which have now reached 1.8 million barrels per day (mbpd)—the highest point since the first quarter of 2016—but still some way off desired levels of around 2.2 mbpd.
Getting back to peak production levels is vital, not just for earnings but also to cushion the impact of a possible deal by OPEC to cut production. While OPEC agreed its first deal to cut production last November, Nigeria was exempt having suffered damage to its oil installations during militant attacks earlier in the year. But, with that deal set to be extended, that concession may no longer be available to Nigeria.
Just as importantly, the Nigerian government has also sought to stimulate growth by making it easier to do business in a country where excessive red-tape and corruption has often made things difficult. Last week, Nigeria’s presidency ordered reforms at local ports in a bid to boost exports and diversify its revenue sources and back in February, Nigeria’s Immigration Service relaxed its entry visa rules for tourists and investors.
Tuesday, May 23, 2017
Video - 5 days power outage to occur in Lagos, Nigeria
Electricity supply will be disrupted in many parts of Lagos this week as Eko Electricity Distribution Company announced a five day power outage in the city. EKEDC spokesman, Godwin Idemudia, said in a statement that the outage would affect Ikoyi, Victoria Island and parts of Lagos Island from Wednesday to Sunday. Mr. Idemudia said the outage was to enable maintenance crew from the Transmission Company of Nigeria -TCN- to address technical and maintenance issues at Alagbon transmission station. The EKEDC spokesman said the company regretted any inconveniences caused by the five-day outage. He promised that supply would be restored to the affected areas as soon as the maintenance was successfully completed.
Nigerian Minister of State for Petrol says he will resign if Nigeria continues to import oil by 2019
Nigeria’s Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Ibe Kachikwu, on Monday vowed to resign if Nigeria continues to import fuel by 2019.
Mr. Kachikwu stated this during an interview on BBC World Service programme, HardTalk, anchored by Stephen Sackur.
In the interview, which lasted 23 minutes, Mr. Kachikwu promised to deliver on the completion of the refineries, noting that he was committed to delivering a future for oil in Nigeria.
On Nigeria’s over-reliance on oil, the minister said the government plans to diversify into agriculture and other sources of revenue.
He said, “Oh, yes, clearly over- reliant , but whether that is dangerous… I look at the positive side of oil also in terms of what it’s done to a country over the years . But when the price slumps, it’s dangerous.
“But we will love to see a lot more diversification, a lot more efforts going into agriculture, emphasis on tourism…”
When asked when the country was going to be self-sufficient in terms of refining petroleum, Mr. Kachikwu declared that 2019 had been set as the target.
“2019 is the target time… I target 2019 . If I don’ t achieve it, I will walk…I put the date and I will achieve it,” the minister said.
He, however, did not clarify if he meant early 2019 or the end of 2019 with the current administration’s tenure set to lapse in May 2019 unless re-elected.
When probed about President Muhammadu Buhari ’s health, the minister noted that he didn’t know the details of the president’s medical treatment.
“He is in London; he’s undergoing hospital treatment. I don’ t know the details of that. I obviously wouldn’t know. But…he’s back in London, he ’s continued some levels of meetings.
“He has a very efficient vice president who is sitting in for him in his absence,” he added.
Commenting further, Mr. Kachikwu explained that he had delivered on all his promises, stating that he made the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, NNPC, a profit-making organisation.
“I have delivered on all that I have promised when I came into office,” he said.
“First, I took Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) and made it a profit- making organisation.
“This is the first time such is happening. I reshaped the organisation. I removed cash call deficits of over $ 6 billion and renegotiated it. I will deliver on the refineries and I’m committed to it. I will deliver a future for oil that makes sense for Nigeria.
“I can ’t pretend that we’re going to solve in one day all the problems that happened in Nigeria in the past,” he added.
Mr. Kachikwu stated this during an interview on BBC World Service programme, HardTalk, anchored by Stephen Sackur.
In the interview, which lasted 23 minutes, Mr. Kachikwu promised to deliver on the completion of the refineries, noting that he was committed to delivering a future for oil in Nigeria.
On Nigeria’s over-reliance on oil, the minister said the government plans to diversify into agriculture and other sources of revenue.
He said, “Oh, yes, clearly over- reliant , but whether that is dangerous… I look at the positive side of oil also in terms of what it’s done to a country over the years . But when the price slumps, it’s dangerous.
“But we will love to see a lot more diversification, a lot more efforts going into agriculture, emphasis on tourism…”
When asked when the country was going to be self-sufficient in terms of refining petroleum, Mr. Kachikwu declared that 2019 had been set as the target.
“2019 is the target time… I target 2019 . If I don’ t achieve it, I will walk…I put the date and I will achieve it,” the minister said.
He, however, did not clarify if he meant early 2019 or the end of 2019 with the current administration’s tenure set to lapse in May 2019 unless re-elected.
When probed about President Muhammadu Buhari ’s health, the minister noted that he didn’t know the details of the president’s medical treatment.
“He is in London; he’s undergoing hospital treatment. I don’ t know the details of that. I obviously wouldn’t know. But…he’s back in London, he ’s continued some levels of meetings.
“He has a very efficient vice president who is sitting in for him in his absence,” he added.
Commenting further, Mr. Kachikwu explained that he had delivered on all his promises, stating that he made the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, NNPC, a profit-making organisation.
“I have delivered on all that I have promised when I came into office,” he said.
“First, I took Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) and made it a profit- making organisation.
“This is the first time such is happening. I reshaped the organisation. I removed cash call deficits of over $ 6 billion and renegotiated it. I will deliver on the refineries and I’m committed to it. I will deliver a future for oil that makes sense for Nigeria.
“I can ’t pretend that we’re going to solve in one day all the problems that happened in Nigeria in the past,” he added.
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