The Nigerian government could reopen discussions with Dangote Petroleum Refinery on the naira-for-crude deal, as uncertainty lingers over its renewal. The initial six-month agreement, which allowed the refinery to purchase crude in naira, ended on March 31, 2025, and has yet to be extended.
Following the expiry of the deal,
Dangote Refinery stopped selling refined petroleum products in naira, raising concerns about potential fuel price increases. According to reports, a senior government official, speaking anonymously, confirmed that authorities have not ruled out renewing the policy, given its impact on fuel prices and foreign exchange rates.
Meanwhile, a report by S&P Global revealed that the refinery has processed an estimated 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, with around 35% of crude sourced from international markets. This translates to approximately 12.6 million barrels imported in three months, highlighting the refinery’s growing dependence on external suppliers.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) had supplied 48 million barrels of crude in naira under the deal, but ongoing supply challenges have led to under-deliveries. While NNPC has allocated seven crude oil cargoes for April deliveries, payment terms remain unsettled.
The state oil firm also reduced its stake in the Dangote project from 20% to 7.2% last year, adding to uncertainty over its long-term supply commitments.
Human rights group HURIWA has urged President Bola Tinubu to ensure the continuation of the naira-for-crude arrangement. The group warned that terminating the deal could lead to fuel price hikes, worsening economic hardship for millions of Nigerians.
HURIWA’s National Coordinator, Emmanuel Onwubiko, emphasised that many businesses, particularly small and medium enterprises, depend on affordable fuel, and any disruption could trigger further job losses and push more Nigerians into poverty.
As the uncertainty continues, Dangote Refinery is expanding its crude sources. The refinery recently secured its first crude shipment from Brazil, with another expected soon from Equatorial Guinea. A company executive confirmed that Dangote has now added these countries to its list of global oil suppliers, alongside discussions with Senegal and Libya.
However, a
Dangote executive admitted that the naira-for-crude arrangement was not commercially advantageous for the company due to foreign exchange risks. Pegging crude purchases and product sales to fluctuating exchange rates has created financial challenges for the refinery.
With the government and Dangote set for fresh talks, the fate of the naira-for-crude deal remains uncertain. While supporters argue it stabilises fuel prices and the economy, challenges related to supply consistency and exchange rate risks could complicate negotiations.
