The war between the United States (US), Israel and Iran, which came to a head in February 2026, has affected the global supply and transport of basic goods for the manufacturing sector, among other impacts.
The geopolitical instability in the Persian Gulf has gone beyond dominating international news, with several basic essentials in the manufacturing sector becoming luxury items.
Nigerian retailers and buyers, unaware of the war’s impact on the global economy, will largely blame local inflation, which stood at 15.38% as of March 2026, up from 15.06% the previous month.
Advocates of safe sex and healthcare should brace for a slight hit in their mission as condoms, one of the most common contraceptives, are about to experience a price hike. The expected development threatens a drop in usage rates, likely leading to unplanned pregnancies and sexually transmitted infections (STIs).
DUBAWA, in this explainer, analysed the direct link between instability in the Middle East and local healthcare costs in Nigeria, showing how a distant conflict threatens Nigerians’ health security.
The Nigerian dilemma
Structural dependence on the outside world had already weakened the nation’s sexual healthcare efforts even before the Iran war.
The foreign exchange market’s volatility and the donor support system, which had started to fade as early as 2025, made the looming condom price increase hit harder. The January 2025 executive order signed by Donald Trump, America’s current president, was intended to reevaluate US foreign aid.
However, it led to a massive pause and eventual cut of over $40 billion in support for the global healthcare landscape. The US Agency for International Development (USAID), which used to be a primary supplier of contraceptives in Nigeria, had ceased to exist as an active funding entity. The Global Fund, which also provides grants and support for national responses to HIV, malaria and tuberculosis (TB) in low- and middle-income countries, reduced its 2024-2026 grant cycle by $1.4 billion. The drop forced many non-governmental organisations (NGOs) in the affected countries, including Nigeria, to pause the distribution of contraceptives.
Condoms, in the production process, require petroleum derivatives like dimethicone, BHT (butylated hydroxytoluene), and naphthalene, among others, to lubricate and preserve the product’s lifespan. The ongoing Iran war, which led to the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupted the steady flow of crude oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) globally. The logistical hurdles of these petrochemical products complicated the manufacturing dilemma faced by condom-making companies.
As a non-manufacturing country, Nigerians bear the brunt of the landing costs and other related expenses associated with imported products. Any factory price increase from manufacturing countries affects costs in the Nigerian market. Considering the unstable exchange rates and the healthcare inflation, which jumped to 30.35% in January 2026, safe sex may end up becoming a luxury too high for a youth population facing a high unemployment rate.
Structural dependence on the outside world had already weakened the nation’s sexual healthcare efforts even before the Iran war.
The foreign exchange market’s volatility and the donor support system, which had started to fade as early as 2025, made the looming condom price increase hit harder. The January 2025 executive order signed by Donald Trump, America’s current president, was intended to reevaluate US foreign aid.
However, it led to a massive pause and eventual cut of over $40 billion in support for the global healthcare landscape. The US Agency for International Development (USAID), which used to be a primary supplier of contraceptives in Nigeria, had ceased to exist as an active funding entity. The Global Fund, which also provides grants and support for national responses to HIV, malaria and tuberculosis (TB) in low- and middle-income countries, reduced its 2024-2026 grant cycle by $1.4 billion. The drop forced many non-governmental organisations (NGOs) in the affected countries, including Nigeria, to pause the distribution of contraceptives.
Condoms, in the production process, require petroleum derivatives like dimethicone, BHT (butylated hydroxytoluene), and naphthalene, among others, to lubricate and preserve the product’s lifespan. The ongoing Iran war, which led to the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupted the steady flow of crude oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) globally. The logistical hurdles of these petrochemical products complicated the manufacturing dilemma faced by condom-making companies.
As a non-manufacturing country, Nigerians bear the brunt of the landing costs and other related expenses associated with imported products. Any factory price increase from manufacturing countries affects costs in the Nigerian market. Considering the unstable exchange rates and the healthcare inflation, which jumped to 30.35% in January 2026, safe sex may end up becoming a luxury too high for a youth population facing a high unemployment rate.
Risk to public health
To further assess the potential risks to public health, DUBAWA sought the opinions of medical experts on how rising condom prices and reduced access could affect disease prevention, sexual health behaviours, and the capacity of Nigeria’s healthcare system.
We spoke to Okolo Patrick, a clinical microbiologist at Edo State University Iyamho Teaching Hospital, on the potential impact of rising condom prices and reduced access. He explained that, from a clinical and public health perspective, such changes would likely lead to a measurable increase in sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including HIV, as well as unintended pregnancies in Nigeria.
According to him, condoms remain a primary and affordable prevention tool. When they become less accessible due to higher costs or limited supply, individuals are more likely to engage in unprotected sex, increasing the risk of transmitting infections such as HIV, gonorrhoea, and chlamydia. He added that even a slight decline in condom use across a population can significantly raise transmission rates over time, particularly in communities where infection rates are already high.
He noted that young people and low-income populations are especially vulnerable, as they often depend on free or subsidised condoms and may struggle to afford alternatives. This, combined with limited access to sexual health information and services, can worsen outcomes and lead to delayed treatment.
On how cost barriers affect behaviour, Okolo stated that rising prices influence not just access but also usage patterns. He explained that higher costs can reduce demand and even affect supply, while also pushing individuals toward risky practices such as reusing condoms or abandoning protection altogether.
DUBAWA also spoke with Andrew Edo, a Professor of Medicine and Consultant Endocrinologist at the University of Benin Teaching Hospital, on the broader health system implications.
Responding to concerns about Nigeria’s healthcare capacity, he noted that a decline in condom use could place significant strain on the system. According to him, condoms remain one of the most affordable and widely accessible forms of protection, and any reduction in their availability or use would likely lead to an increase in cases of STIs and unplanned pregnancies.
He explained that such a rise would not only increase the burden on already stretched health facilities but could also undermine the effectiveness of ongoing public health interventions. More patients would require testing, treatment, and long-term care, particularly in the case of HIV, which demands sustained medical support.
Edo added that this trend could reverse the progress made over the years in HIV prevention, STI control, and reproductive health, especially if preventive measures become less accessible to vulnerable populations.
To further assess the potential risks to public health, DUBAWA sought the opinions of medical experts on how rising condom prices and reduced access could affect disease prevention, sexual health behaviours, and the capacity of Nigeria’s healthcare system.
We spoke to Okolo Patrick, a clinical microbiologist at Edo State University Iyamho Teaching Hospital, on the potential impact of rising condom prices and reduced access. He explained that, from a clinical and public health perspective, such changes would likely lead to a measurable increase in sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including HIV, as well as unintended pregnancies in Nigeria.
According to him, condoms remain a primary and affordable prevention tool. When they become less accessible due to higher costs or limited supply, individuals are more likely to engage in unprotected sex, increasing the risk of transmitting infections such as HIV, gonorrhoea, and chlamydia. He added that even a slight decline in condom use across a population can significantly raise transmission rates over time, particularly in communities where infection rates are already high.
He noted that young people and low-income populations are especially vulnerable, as they often depend on free or subsidised condoms and may struggle to afford alternatives. This, combined with limited access to sexual health information and services, can worsen outcomes and lead to delayed treatment.
On how cost barriers affect behaviour, Okolo stated that rising prices influence not just access but also usage patterns. He explained that higher costs can reduce demand and even affect supply, while also pushing individuals toward risky practices such as reusing condoms or abandoning protection altogether.
DUBAWA also spoke with Andrew Edo, a Professor of Medicine and Consultant Endocrinologist at the University of Benin Teaching Hospital, on the broader health system implications.
Responding to concerns about Nigeria’s healthcare capacity, he noted that a decline in condom use could place significant strain on the system. According to him, condoms remain one of the most affordable and widely accessible forms of protection, and any reduction in their availability or use would likely lead to an increase in cases of STIs and unplanned pregnancies.
He explained that such a rise would not only increase the burden on already stretched health facilities but could also undermine the effectiveness of ongoing public health interventions. More patients would require testing, treatment, and long-term care, particularly in the case of HIV, which demands sustained medical support.
Edo added that this trend could reverse the progress made over the years in HIV prevention, STI control, and reproductive health, especially if preventive measures become less accessible to vulnerable populations.
